Yankees vs. Orioles Runline Pick 5/16/22

by | Last updated May 16, 2022 | mlb

New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles

Date: Monday, May 16th, 07:05 ET

Location: Oriole Park at Camden Yards


Money Line: Yankees -210 / Orioles +170 (BetOnline – Fastest Bitcoin payouts on the web!)

Total Line: 8.5


New York: Luis Severino (2-0, 4.08)
Baltimore: Kyle Bradish (1-1, 4.24)

Yankees Projected Lineup

Joey Gallo LF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS
Josh Donaldson 3B
DJ LeMahieu 3B
Aaron Judge RF
Kyle Higashioka C
Anthony Rizzo 1B
Giancarlo Stanton RF
Aaron Hicks CF
Luis Severino P

Orioles Projected Lineup

Ramon Urias 3B
Robinson Chirinos C
Tyler Nevin 1B
Rougned Odor 2B
Anthony Santander RF
Jorge Mateo RF
Austin Hays LF
Cedric Mullins CF
Trey Mancini 1B
Kyle Bradish P


New York Yankees: 25-9-0 SU / OU 14-20-0 / Run Line W/L 19-15-0
Baltimore Orioles: 14-21-0 SU / OU 10-24-1 / Run Line W/L 19-16-0

The Baltimore Orioles host the New York Yankees on Monday, May 16th at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places New York as the favorite (-210), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

The New York Yankees are coming off a 4 run win over the Chicago Sox by a score of 5-1. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the White Sox to 1 run on 4 hits. The Yankees benefited from an offense that generated 5 runs on 2 hits. Heading into this game, New York was the betting favorite, at -120.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 32 of their games, winning at a rate of 72.0%. Together, the Yankees and White Sox stayed below the OU line set at 7.5 runs. This outcome pushed New York’s over-under record further below .500 at 14-20-0.

The Yankees are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +19. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 7.4 runs per game, compared to their season average at 4.91. So far, New York has won over half of their 11 series played, going 9-1-1.

Baltimore will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Tigers by the score of 5-1. On their way to giving up 5 runs, the Orioles staff allowed 12 hits. At the plate, the Orioles only came through for 1 run on 4 hits. Leading into Baltimore’s loss they were the underdogs, getting 120.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has gone into 32 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 38.0%. With this result, the Orioles and the Tigers combined to fall below the over-under line of 7.5 runs. Now, Baltimore had an over-under record of 10-24-1.

In their last 5 contests, Orioles have just 1 win, going 1-4. This recent slump is is backed by a scoring margin of -17 over their last 5 games. If Baltimore is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 1.4 runs per game, compared to a season average of 3.26. Baltimore has a below .500 series record of just 5-5-1.

Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees will send Luis Severino to the mound with an overall record of 2-0. So far, Severino has put together an ERA of 4.08. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.7 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.259, including averaging 1.28 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Luis Severino has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 25.0%, while averaging 5.16 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.83 walks per contest.

Baltimore will roll with Kyle Bradish (1-1) as their starter. To date, Bradish has an ERA of 4.24 while lasting an average of 5.67 innings per appearance. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the right-hander, with a batting average of 0.254. Home runs have been an issue for Bradish, as he is allowing an average of 1.59 per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Bradish has a strikeout percentage of just 25.0% and a per game average of 5.33. Throughout the season, Bradish has avoided walking batters, allowing just 1.59 per contest.

New York vs Baltimore History

Today’s matchup between the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles will be their 6th meeting of the season. So far, New York is leading the season series, 4-2. Through 6th games, the series’ over-under record is 2-4, with the average run total sitting at 8.89 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.5 runs. Going back to last year, New York won the season series, 11 games to 8. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 7-12. Last year, the Yankees and Orioles averaged 8.89 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.84 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Yankees’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
  • NY Yankees is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore’s last 5 games when playing at home against NY Yankees
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore’s last 8 games

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Heading into this matchup, the New York Yankees are the heavy favorite at -210. But despite these odds, the pitching matchup isn’t as heavily skewed as the lines suggest. Through 3 starts, Kyle Bradish has held up well, with an expected ERA of 3.82. In addition, the Orioles have shown the ability to play the Yankees tough. I recommend taking Baltimore +1.5 on the runline.

Free MLB Pick: Baltimore +1.5. Bet on baseball games for cheaper (discounted odds) at BetAnySports!

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