Race: Sylvania 300 Predictions
Date: Sunday September 27, 2015
Track: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Time: 2 pm ET
TV: NBCSN
by Virginia Vroom, NASCAR Handicapper, Predictem.com
If this first race of the Chase is any indication of how unpredictable things can be, then we are in for a very good close to the season! Denny Hamlin came from laps down to win at Chicagoland on Sunday. Surprisingly, Jeff Gordon remained very competitive throughout a good portion of the race, although the last restart caught him unable to stay with the lead cars. His finish was mediocre at best. Perhaps the biggest story of the day was the altercation between Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick , which led to Harvick punching Johnson after the race. There are several theories to which driver should’ve done what and who was in the wrong, but overall, I call it a racing incident. These are both championship teams with a lot on the line, and drivers are going to give it their all on and off the track.
As we approach the second race of the Chase, we will have to wait and see what each of these guys can pull off at Loudon. Interestingly enough, only Jimmie Johnson has wins at Loudon. Harvick does not. In recent interviews, he says that he has the cars and equipment to win, but that only means so much when there are no stats to back that up. I think that Harvick will remain competitive, but I think that Johnson may edge him out on points again this weekend.
New Hampshire Motor Speedway is 1.058 mile asphalt oval with variable banking from 2 to 7 degrees through the turns. The straights are minimal with only 1 degree of banking. Tires and track position play a big role here as usual in these short-track/intermediate hybrids. Of note, fuel mileage can lead to a win here as well. Most importantly, though, we will see those drivers who maintain a spot with the lead pack contending for the win at the end of the night. It’s hard to catch up at Loudon once behind, but, then again, we saw Denny Hamlin pull off what seemed impossible at Chicagoland to grab the win after a not so stellar start to his day.
Overall, there are 4 top contenders. Jeff Gordon has a multitude of records here including most laps led, most top fives, most top tens, most starts, and most laps completed. That’s a hard scorecard to beat; however, with his struggles so far this year, I don’t know that he’ll have what it takes to make it to victory lane. Denny Hamlin has 2 wins here, most recently in 2012. After his victory last weekend, I’d say he’s going to be tough to beat if he qualifies well and stays out of trouble. Jimmie Johnson has a lot to fight for in order to move on to the next round of the Chase. After his less than impressive finish at Chicago, he’s got a good shot of securing a win here at Loudon. He runs well here and definitely knows his way around the place with a total of 3 wins to show for it. What he will have to watch out for is the wrath of Kevin Harvick. I really think that Harvick is that guy that will give Johnson absolutely no slack and ensure that he finds an opportunity to interfere with Johnson’s race. Regardless, Johnson is a good pick. Finally, my number one prediction is Kyle Busch. He is the defending champ of this year’s race at Loudon and simply on fire still. Busch is a driver with an extensive amount of motivation and is certainly looking for a win to secure his spot in the next round of the Chase. Let’s take a look at all of the possible winners this weekend at New Hampshire:
My Pick to Win: Kyle Busch
Middle of the Road Pick: Carl Edwards
Longshot Prediction: Justin Allgaier. Bet your prediction using your credit card and get a generous 50% sign up bonus at Bovada Sportsbook.
I really just have a hard time putting Danica Patrick as my pick unless we are at Indy or on a super speedway. With limited picks in that last group, I think that Allgaier has a better shot at a hail Mary than Danica. Edwards is a strong competitor for our B list drivers this week. He’s got some good experience here and really seems to do pretty well at this track. Overall, I think that the drivers are going to be chasing Busch for the win, though. Let’s take a look and see where everyone is sitting after Chicago and what kind of ground some of these guys need to make up.
Here are your current top 16 after last week’s race:
1. Matt Kenseth
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Carl Edwards
4. Kyle Busch
5. Kurt Busch
6. Joey Logano
7. Jimmie Johnson
8. Ryan Newman
9. Brad Keselowski
10. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
11. Martin Truex Jr.
12. Jeff Gordon
13. Jamie McMurray
14. Paul Menard
15. Clint Bowyer
16. Kevin Harvick
It’s quite the fall from grace that Kevin Harvick took with a second-to-last place finish at Chicago. With a 22 points deficit between himself and 12th place, he’s definitely got his work cut out for him. The top 12 is all anyone cares about now. That’s where the drivers need to see their names. They can secure their position into the next segment by winning. If they can’t do that in the next 3 races, they must get out of those last 4 spots, or they can kiss their chances at the championship goodbye. Loudon is going to show us just exactly how hard these guys are willing to fight. Look for some hard fought racing this weekend as some drivers strive for revenge and others play it safe to get those invaluable points as we head into the second race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup! Another great NASCAR betting site that offers not only driver to win, but head to head driver vs. driver matchups is 5Dimes.
Sylvania 300 Driver Odds to Win
Kevin Harvick No. 4 +450
Brad Keselowski No. 2 +500
Kyle Busch No. 18 +500
Joey Logano No. 22 +700
Matt Kenseth No. 20 +700
Denny Hamlin No. 11 +750
Jimmie Johnson No. 48 +1000
Carl Edwards No. 19 +1200
Kurt Busch No. 41 +1200
Martin Truex, Jr. No. 78 +1400 D
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. No. 88 +1800
Jeff Gordon No. 24 +2000
Jamie McMurray No. 1 +3300
Kyle Larson No. 42 +3300
Clint Bowyer No. 15 +5000
Kasey Kahne No. 5 +5000
Ryan Newman No. 31 +5000
Austin Dillon No. 3 +6600
Tony Stewart No. 14 +6600
David Ragan No. 55 +15000
Greg Biffle No. 16 +15000
Paul Menard No. 27 +15000
A. J. Allmendinger No. 47 +30000
Aric Almirola No. 43 +30000
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. No. 17 +30000
Casey Mears No. 13 +50000
Danica Patrick No. 10 +50000
Justin Allgaier No. 51 +50000
Sam Hornish, Jr. No. 9 +50000
Trevor Bayne No. 6 +50000
Jeffrey Earnhardt No. 32 +50000
Alex Bowman No. 7 +100000
Brett Moffitt No. 34 +100000
Cole Whitt No. 35 +100000
David Gilliland No. 38 +100000
Landon Cassill No. 40 +100000
Matt DiBenedetto No. 83 +100000
Michael Annett No. 46 +100000
Jeb Burton No. 23 +100000
Josh Wise No. 26 +100000
Travis Kvapil No. 30 +100000
B.J. McLeod No. 33 +100000
Timmy Hill No. 62 +100000
Ryan Preece No. 98 +100000
