By Ryno of Predictem.com
Taking an early look at the 2011 NBA Rookie of the Year odds, there are a few factors that must be considered. The first factor is which team each player will end up on in the draft. The next factor is how much playing time that player will get and what type of a role they will have on their team. Another factor is how NBA-ready each player is, as some players will need more work than others before they are ready to contribute in the NBA.
Listed below, you’ll find my thoughts and picks to win the award this year.
Al-Farouq Aminu: Aminu has the size and versatility to be a dangerous player in the NBA. The 6-foot-8 small forward can handle the ball, play inside, and hit jumpers. But he is also very raw and needs time to develop. There’s also no clear favorite to land him in the draft. He has great value at +1500, but it’s probably best to lay off.
Blake Griffin: Griffin is the x-factor in the Rookie of the Year betting. The 2009 No. 1 pick had to sit out the entire season with an injury and never even played a game. Therefore, he is still eligible to win Rookie of the Year in 2011. Griffin has an advantage over the other players because he got to practice with the Clippers for the past year. If Griffin is healthy, he will definitely be a starter for the Clippers and will put up big numbers.
Cole Aldrich: Aldrich will be a solid starting big man or role player in the NBA, but he doesn’t have much star potential. He’s highly unlikely to put up big numbers, especially as a rookie.
DeMarcus Cousins: Cousins is the most NBA-ready big man in the draft. He has an NBA body and can rebound and score inside with anyone. It’s not unrealistic to think he could come close to averaging a triple-double as a rookie. He will likely be the starting center or the sixth man for the Kings. He has terrific value at +800.
Derrick Favors: When looking at Favors’ odds at +700, that seems like great value. But it’s really not. Favors will not be ready to contribute much as a rookie. He’s a raw player who needs a few years to develop. And it’s unlikely that he will be starting if he’s drafted by the Nets because they will be targeting a big-name power forward in free agency.
Ed Davis: Davis had a season-ending injury this year at North Carolina and is not very NBA-ready. He needs to add strength and develop his game further. He has the potential to be a star, but he won’t be dominant as a rookie.
Evan Turner: Turner is perhaps the most NBA-ready player in the draft. He may not have the potential that John Wall or Derrick Favors has, but he can start on a team and put up big numbers as a rookie. Turner, who will likely be the starting shooting guard for the Sixers, puts up great all-around stats, as he can score, rebound, dish out assists and get some steals.
Greg Monroe: Monroe has some nice value at +800 for a guy who is ready to contribute as a rookie. He is an all-around big man with the ability to score in the post and dish off some assists from the post. He is also a very good defender.
John Wall: Wall will be the No. 1 pick and will be the starting point guard for the Wizards alongside Gilbert Arenas. He will have the ball in his hands and an opportunity to rack up a lot of assists as a rookie. He may not score a lot of points, but will most definitely lead all rookies in assists and entertainment value.
Wesley Johnson: Johnson is the best bet here. At +800, he can easily win Rookie of the Year. Johnson has the potential to be a major star in the league. The 6-foot-7 wing will likely be drafted by the Timberwolves and start right away. He is capable of scoring between 15 and 20 points per game as a rookie, especially on a bad team like the Timberwolves.
My Predictions to Win:
Most Likely: Evan Turner
Serious Darkhorse: Wesley Johnson
Here’s a full list of 2011 NBA Rookie of the Year candidates that you can bet on using your credit card at Sportsbook:
Al-Farouq Aminu +1500
Blake Griffin +220
Cole Aldrich +1500
DeMarcus Cousins +800
Derrick Favors +700
Ed Davis +1500
Evan Turner +300
Greg Monroe +800
John Wall +250
Wesley Johnson +800