76ers vs. Heat Game 2 Betting Analysis & Pick ATS

by | May 4, 2022 | nba

Philadelphia 76ers (55-34 SU, 42-46-1 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (58-30 SU, 50-37-1 ATS)
When: Wednesday May 04 2022, 07:30 PM (ET)
Where: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
TV: TNT

Point Spread: PHI +8.5/MIA -8.5 (Opened MIA -8.5 at BetNow)
Total: 207.5 (Opened at 206.5)
Money Line: Phoenix Suns 310/Miami Heat -400
Power Rating: MIA -9

Probable Starting Lineups

Philadelphia 76ers PG James Harden, SG Tyrese Maxey, SF Danny Green, PF Tobias Harris, C Paul Reed

Miami Heat PG Gabe Vincent, SG Max Strus P, SF Jimmy Butler P, PF P.J. Tucker P, C Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Philadelphia 76ers
Joel Embiid: Head (OUT)

Miami Heat
Max Strus: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)
Gabe Vincent: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)
Caleb Martin: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE)
P.J. Tucker: Calf (QUESTIONABLE)
Tyler Herro: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE)
Kyle Lowry: Hamstring (OUT)

The Miami Heat host the Philadelphia 76ers in an Eastern-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 07:30 PM ET at the FTX Arena.

Recent Form

The Philadelphia 76ers come into this game with an overall record of 51-31, placing them 2nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, Philadelphia is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 29-16. Over the 76ers’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. In this stretch, Philadelphia’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 104.0 points per game. Combined, the 76ers’ last five opponents are giving up 107.0 points per contest. Even though Philadelphia has struggled of late, they have shown improvements on the defensive end of the court, giving up just 103.0 points per game over their last five contests. This number is down from their season average of 107.0. In the Philadelphia 76ers’ most recent game, the team fell to Miami by a score of 106-92.

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 at home, holding a record of 33-12. The Heat have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Miami’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 108.0 points per game. Combined, the Heat’s last five opponents are giving up 111.0 points per contest. The Heat come into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 98.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 105.0. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, Miami took down Philadelphia by a score of 106-92.

HEAT/CELTICS: HUGE *10* TOTAL! 13-3 RUN!

Will Rodgers Sports HandicapperI came up short with last night's NBA pick, but have won two straight in the East Conf Finals. Had the Under in Gm 4 & Boston in Gm 5! For Gm 6, I've got a HUGE 10* Total! I'm 8-3 L11 playoff totals, not to mention +$24,112 with ALL pro hoops this SEASON! Also, it's been a RED HOT start to the week overall! The L4 days, I'm 13-3 with premium plays!

Individual Player Analysis

As Philadelphia travels to take on the Miami Heat, the 76ers’ will need to do a better job replacing the scoring off Joel Embiid, as they scored just 92 points in game 1. For the season, Miami is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 39.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring, averaging 21 points across his 58 games. Throughout the season, Butler has outscored his season average in 50.0% of his outings. On the season, the 76ers have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.0% of their games, giving them a rank of 17th among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Philadelphia 76ers are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 35 of Philadelphia’s 41 games, leading to a winning percentage of 83%. So far, the Miami Heat have played 43 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 43 times, by an average margin of -13.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat have met up for 5 games. In their last meeting, Miami picked up a 106-92 win.

How the Public is Betting the 76ers vs Heat

67% are betting the Heat against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 207.5

More Picks: Mavs vs. Suns Predictions 5/4/22 >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • 76ers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • 76ers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
  • Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

In game 1 of this Eastern Conference semi-finals matchup, the 76ers managed to keep things close in the first half. However, without Joel Embiid, the Heat managed to put the clamps down in the 2nd half, holding the Sixers to just 41 points. A key to Philly’s struggles was their inability to hit shots from outside (17%). Things could have been even worse for Philadelphia if Miami had connected on more of their 3’s, hitting just 25%. Look for the Heat to cover the spread once again.