RBD breaks down Atlanta vs New York with sharp betting insights, including a spread pick and series betting angle for this playoff matchup.

Atlanta at New York
NBA Prediction

After dropping my first Play In game, I bounced back with a winner in my only other pick, using Philadelphia -1′.
They won by 12.

The bet was based on my belief that Orlando would fold in the 4th quarter, and though they didn’t actually collapse they entered the final 12 minutes down by five and got outscored by seven.

From the article:
“Against my better judgment based on years of sports betting experience I’m taking a game that’s 1% under my usual cut off and I’m also forcing a play that misses qualifying by the hook.”

I’m usually a stickler for my rules for sports betting and I ignored not one but two of them in my last play.
The problem with getting the win is it encourages a bad habit, makes me want to take the risk again.
And yes, I’m doing it again today.

Atlanta just misses qualifying as a WF1 (Wrong Favorite) spot.

WF1 finished the regular season at 65-79, a slight winning edge for the Fade.
But when it was a road game the record was 39-51.
That’s a 57% Fade, just one point under my usual cut off for making a bet, 58%.

In other words, it’s the same situation I had with Orlando against Philly on Wednesday night.
And one of my other betting rules is to stick with what works.

Based on gut feel, I like the Knicks to win this one SU (they’re 31-10 at home in the Garden), so it’s just a matter of covering the spread.

The game opened at NY -5′ and it looks like the betting public expects it to be closer because it’s down to -5 right now at a few different shops.

Maybe it’s because although New York took two of three games during the regular season the two wins came by just three points, short of tonight’s number, -5.

So if I’m correct that the Knicks will get the win, and they’re going to be laying five, that means there’s only four numbers that can screw me (1,2,3, and 4.)

And as long as I’m in the mood for breaking my standard sports betting rules I’m going to ignore one more.
It’s rare that I lay more than standard odds of -110 but I feel that youth will not be served well in this series and I’m willing to pay a price to back my belief.

With a more talented team, home court advantage, and experience over youth I’m dipping into my regular season profits and taking New York to win the series.
You can find this line anywhere from -260 to -270 at our sponsors.

So, all in all, I’m breaking three of my rules with my picks today.
I’m forcing a play that’s under my 58% ceiling, I’m forcing you to play that misses qualifying by a half point, and I’m laying higher than my standard money line odds.

But

I’m feeling rebellious.
I just hope it turns out that I’m not a “rebel without a clue” (nod to The Replacements and “I’ll Be You” there.)
(And yes, the line is from Paul Westerberg. Tom Petty stole it from him.)

One other thing I like about the Knicks today.
I did a quick survey of some of the, “I’m hitting 80% of my picks – send me your money TODAY!!!” guys.
Can’t find one of them who doesn’t love Atlanta and the points.
So as Spackler would say, “I’ve got that going for me.”

The Knicks enter their postseason adventure having won their last five games to close out the regular season.
Atlanta lost their last game and three of their last five, giving a slight edge in momentum to New York.

A quick look at last year’s opening weekend of the NBA playoffs saw the Favs take a slight edge at 5-3.
Included in those five wins was a double-digit win and cover by New York at home in their opening game.
Looking for more of the same today.

Note – when I started writing this, -5 was available at many books.
They’re gone now.
Most shops are at -5′ and a few have already gone up to -6 so I’m grabbing the 5 and a hook now.

My plays:
NY -5′
New York series bet -260.

Regular season record: 33-25
Postseason record: 1-1