Barking Dog Alert: Mavs vs Pelicans Prediction 10/25/22

by | Oct 25, 2022 | nba

Dallas Mavericks (1-1 SU, 2-0-0 ATS) vs. New Orleans Pelicans (2-1 SU, 2-1-0
ATS)

When: Tuesday, October 25th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: Smoothie King Center, LA, New Orleans
TV: TNT

Point Spread: DAL -4.5/ NO +4.5
Total: 220.5
Money Line: Dallas Mavericks -188/ +155

Notable Injuries

Mavericks

  • Davis Bertans (Out) Knee
  • Frank Ntilikina (Out) Ankle

Pelicans

  • Brandon Ingram (Out) Concussion
  • Zion Williamson (Questionable) Hip
  • Kira Lewis Jr. (Out) Knee
  • Herbert Jones (Questionable) Knee
  • EJ Liddell (Out) Knee

Recent Form

The Mavericks come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 1-1. So far, the team has
gone 2-0-0 against the spread. Including last season, Dallas has a below .500 mark over their
past 10 games at 4-6. Against the spread, they have a mark of 5-5 in these matchups.

In their previous game, the Mavericks took down the Grizzlies by a score of 137-96. Not only
did they come away with a straight up win, but they also covered the spread as 5 point favorites.
Dallas played well enough in the second half to prevent the Grizzlies from making things
interesting down the stretch, as they led by 28 going into halftime. Leading the team in scoring
was Luka Doncic, as he contributed 32 points while hitting 52.2% of his shots.

So far, the Pelicans have put together an overall record of 2-1, while going 2-1-0 vs the
spread. Across the team’s previous 3 games, they have gone 2-1 straight-up and 2-1 vs the
spread.

In their previous game, the Pelicans were favored to win vs the Jazz. However, their 122-121
loss gave them both a straight up and ATS defeat. Even though New Orleans made a substantial
comeback in the 2nd half, it was not enough to make up for their 10 point halftime deficit. In
the loss, CJ McCollum led the team in scoring with 28 points on a field goal percentage of
48.0%.

The Historicals

In last year’s regular season, the two teams played games against each other, with the
Mavericks walking away a series win at 3-1. Dallas finished with an above .500 record on the road
in their head-to-head matchups. In last year’s head-to-head meetings, the Mavericks averaged
115.75 points per game vs New Orleans, which was an increase over their season-long average.
While the Mavericks saw a boost in scoring, the Pelicans averaged 106.0 points per contest in a
head-to-head meeting vs Dallas. This figure was similar to season-long average. The ATS record
across the previous 5 head-to-head meetings is 4-1 in favor of the Mavericks. In these matchups,
Dallas has averaged 117 points per game, while allowing 106. Dallas and New Orleans averaged a
combined 223 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

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Analysis

The Mavericks come into today’s game as the 29th ranked scoring offense at 121.0 points per
game. Coming into today’s game, the Mavericks will be looking to continue shooting the ball well
from outside, as they are averaging just 15.5 made 3’s per game. If the Dallas offense is going
to improve, they must continue to do a good job avoiding turnovers. Currently, the unit is 1st in
fewest turnovers per game.

Defensively, Dallas has had its problems giving up an average of 114.94 points per game
(26th).

More Picks: Get our Golden State at Phoenix best bet for 10/25/22

One thing to watch will be if Luka Doncic will be able to take advantage of his matchup vs the
Pelicans. Last year, they were ranked just 18th in points allowed to point-guards.

Through 3 games, the Pelicans are averaging 125.0 points per contest, placing them 16th in the
NBA. The Pelicans come into the game as a below-average 3-point shooting team, connecting at a
rate of 9.3 made 3’s per game. If the New Orleans offense is going to improve, they would benefit
from attacking the basket and generating looks at the line. So far, they are ranked just 13th in
made free-throws per game.

Defensively, New Orleans has had its problems giving up an average of 113.04 points per game
(23rd).

Leading scorer CJ McCollum will need to be on top of his game vs the Mavericks, as they were
on the NBA’s top teams at limiting the scoring of opposing shooting guards.

Betting Trends

Mavericks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.
Mavericks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home
games vs. a team with a losing road record. Pelicans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a
team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Pels have all the pieces to go far this season and make for an interesting underdog bet
Tuesday night!