Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Prediction ATS 11/4/21

by | Nov 4, 2021 | nba

Boston Celtics (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS ) vs. Miami Heat (6-1 SU, 6-1ATS)
When: Thursday November 04 2021, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: FTX Arena: Miami, Florida
TV:NBC Sports Boston

Point Spread: BOS +7 / MIA -7 Opened at (-8 ) (Betting Sites)
Total: 216 (Opened at 215 )
Money Line: Boston +228 / Miami -284
Power Rating: MIA -10

Probable Starting Lineups

Boston: PG Marcus Smart, SG Jaylen Brown, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams
Miami: PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson, SF Jimmy Bulter, PF P.J. Tucker , C Dewayne Dedmon

Key Injuries

Celtics KZ Okpala: ankle (QUESTIONABLE) Victor Oladipo: quadricep (QUESTIONABLE) Max Strus: back (OUT)

Heat Robert Williams III: ankle (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The Boston Celtics enter today’s game, having won 3 of their past eight games. When traveling away from home, the Celtics are an above .500 team, having gone 3-2.

As the road team, the Celtics travel to Miami with a positive plus-minus of rating 3.5 points. Overall, the Celtics are ranked 24th among NBA teams in point differential (0.9).

Among NBA teams, they have played the 17th toughest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Boston Celtics to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they are covering the spread in 37.50%% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -6.4.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is SG Jaylen Brown. So far, Brown is averaging 26.67 points per game.

Brown has also been the team’s best three-point shooter, connecting on 2.83 shots from downtown per game. Al Horford has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 10.4 boards per game.

The Miami Heat enter today’s game, having won five straight games. The Heat have been one of the league’s best teams in their past seven contests, going 6-1. They have accomplished this while playing 5th toughest schedule.

As they get set to host the Celtics, Miami has a positive home plus-minus of 24.7 points. Overall, the Heat are NBA’s best team in point differential (16.7).

For bettors, taking the Boston Celtics to cover the spread has been a winning bet as they are covering the spread in 85.70% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 13.6.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is PF Jimmy Butler. So far, Butler is averaging 25.0 points per game.

The Heat’s best three-point shooter has been Tyler Herro, connecting on 2.86 shots from downtown per game. Bam Adebayo has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 13.83 boards per game.

An Eye On Pace

In terms of pace, the biggest matchup to watch is how Boston will respond to Miami’s slow style of play. When playing opponents who prefer to slow the game down, the Celtics average three fewer possessions than expected; they win these contests 46% of the time.

In the instances when Miami plays average place teams, the games slow by four possessions. The Heat win at a rate of 61%.

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Defensive Matchup

The Heat enter this game as the better defensive team. So far, Miami opponents average just 98 points per game, with an offensive efficiency rating of 99 points per 100 possessions. Historically, the Celtics have handled strong defenses better than most teams, scoring an extra five points per possession. On average, they win these games 50% of the time.

This season, Miami’s defense has been especially tough on top scorers. So far, just one player in the NBA’s top 100 scoring list has surpassed their average scoring output.

Through six games, the Celtics are the 23 rated team in defensive efficiency. When the Heat plays teams similar to Boston, they win 78% of the time with an average scoring margin of 7 points per game.

When playing the Celtics, their opponent’s top scorers have above-average games over 50% of the time.

The Historicals

Last season, the Celtics and Heat met up for three games, with the Miami taking the series 2-1. The cumulative score in these contests was 364-352 in favor of the Heat.

How the Public is Betting the Celtics vs. Heat

58% are betting the Heat against the spread.
55% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 217.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Boston enters this game in the unenviable position of playing on back-to-back nights. However, given that their last contest was in Orlando, they are not playing with a huge travel burden.

In this contest, I see Miami’s defense frustrating Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. If these two players have below-average games, the supporting cast doesn’t have the firepower to pick up the slack. However, with a 7 point spread, I like am taking the Celtics to cover.

My model shows the Heat pulling out the win 111-107.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

In this game, my favorite prop bet is to take Jimmy Butler, finishing below his prop of 22.5. Jaylen Brown has the defensive acumen to slow down the Heat star.