Georgia State Panthers vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns Pick ATS
When: Thursday, November 4, 7:30 p.m.
Where: Cajun Field, Lafayette, La.
TV: ESPN
Point Spread: GAST +12/ULL -12 (BetAnySports – Did you know that you only have to lay -105 odds (instead of -110) on sides and totals there? Imagine how much money you’d save!)
Total: O/U 53.5
Outlook
The pressure is on for one side in this game, but it’s not the one you think. Georgia State has to find two wins out of its final four to qualify for a bowl game. The Panthers could find their way into the Sun Belt title game if they can win out and Appalachian State stumbles, but that’s a pretty unlikely scenario. However, getting to a third straight bowl and fourth in five years would be a significant accomplishment for Shawn Elliott’s squad.
But standing in their path is a Louisiana team that can wrap up the Sun Belt West with a win here, as the Cajuns have a three-game lead on everyone else in the division. With Cincinnati having basically locked up the G5 bid to the NY6 bowls, Louisiana isn’t really playing for anything other than the Sun Belt championship. The Cajuns have already earned bowl eligibility and will almost certainly play in the Sun Belt title game, but with bowl tie-ins being what they are, they’re only playing for their record as opposed to trying to reach any kind of achievement beyond the league. Will that be enough against a Georgia State team that is fighting for its bowl life?
How the Public is Betting the Georgia State/Louisiana Game
The public is going hard on Louisiana, as 74 percent of all tickets have come in on the Cajuns. That’s pushed the spread up a full point, with the total increasing from 53 to 53.5.
Injury Concerns
Georgia State:
Wide receiver Cornelius McCoy (hamstring) is questionable.
Louisiana:
Offensive lineman Tyler Brown (upper body), offensive lineman Jax Harrington (lower body), offensive lineman Carlos Rubio (lower body), kicker Kenneth Almendares (undisclosed), and defensive lineman Andre Landry (undisclosed) are out. Running back Tito Byce (upper body), wide receiver DaJon Bonnee (lower body), running back Emani Bailey (lower body) and defensive lineman Sonny Hazard (undisclosed) are questionable.
When Georgia State Has the Ball
The Panthers barely survived against Georgia Southern in their most recent game, as the offense was decent but unspectacular against the Eagles. If not for Jamyest Williams coming up with several big runs, the Panthers might have fallen short in that one. The run game is Georgia State’s bread and butter, as Williams and Tucker Gregg often combine to top 200 yards together, which allows Darren Grainger to make throws when needed and not force the issue.
For the year, Grainger has 11 touchdowns and three interceptions, but he’s been much more of a game manager than someone who can turn the game around and make a play when the Panthers need it. Against the Eagles, Grainger averaged less than six yards per attempt, but the Panthers still won because he didn’t make the critical mistakes with the football. As long as Georgia State can keep the ball moving on the ground, they should be able to hang around, but if the Panthers have to put the ball in Grainger’s hands, this might not end well.
When Louisiana Has the Ball
Levi Lewis also has 11 touchdowns against three interceptions, but the difference is that he’s much more dynamic and confident with the football, as he’s thrown for 1,655 yards on the season compared to Grainger’s 924. Lewis hasn’t done a lot of running this year, in large part because he doesn’t really have to run. Even with Emani Bailey on the shelf, Chris Smith and Montrell Johnson both average more than six yards per carry, making it very difficult for opposing defenses to get the Cajuns off the field.
Making life even more difficult for defenses is the fact that Lewis doesn’t lock in on any one receiver. Anyone the Cajuns put on the field is likely to make a play, as 12 different players have at least seven catches on the season, and nobody has more than 19 grabs on the season. This is an offense that truly can plug in anyone at wide receiver and have success, which could make for a long night for a Georgia State pass defense that gives up 253 yards a game through the air.
More Picks: Get Zman’s LSU at Alabama Predicted Point Spread Winner
Betting Trends
Georgia State keeps finding a way to keep the game close, as the Panthers have covered in six of their past seven conference games. The Panthers have had a fair amount of success against Louisiana ATS, as they’ve covered three times with one push in their past five matchups. Meanwhile, Louisiana has done a fine job on Thursdays (5-2 ATS in their past seven), but they’ve covered in just two of their past seven matchups as a favorite.
Even though Louisiana has a pretty solid offense, the bookmakers often forget is that Cajun Field is not a friendly place for opposing offenses, thanks to the Cajuns’ stern defense. In Louisiana’s past 12 home games, the under has cashed 11 times.
Weather Report
This could be a rough night for football, with showers in the area and temperatures dropping into the low 50s and possibly mid-40s. Winds will blow at six miles per hour, so conditions will be fine once the showers pass.
Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread
Louisiana has let mediocre teams hang around with them at times, as Arkansas State and South Alabama both came close to pulling off the stunning upset. But those games all took place on the road. Louisiana is 3-1 ATS at home on the year, and nobody but Nicholls State stayed within 28 points of the Cajuns in Lafayette. That tells me Louisiana can get the job done here. Give me the Cajuns. Bankroll running low? Instead of re-depositing and getting nothing (or a tiny reload bonus), consider doubling your bankroll with a GIANT 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500 at GTBets Sportsbook! They have an awesome rewards program!
