Brooklyn (23-49 SU, 40-32 ATS) at Toronto (53-19 SU, 40-32 ATS) Betting Pick
Time: March 23rd, 2018 7:35 PM ET
Where: Toronto, ON
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem
Point Spread: Toronto -12
Total Line: 221.5
In this market, the Raptors opened as a 13-point favorite initially. Nevertheless, we have seen a one-point line movement downward to indicate action has come in on Brooklyn. The opening price in the Over/Under market was 220.5, but action on the Over has propped this market upward by a point. On the Money Line, the Nets are priced at +650 contrasting to Toronto who comes in as a -1000 home favorite
The Toronto Raptors will curate the hosting duties as they welcome divisional rival the Brooklyn Nets in an Atlantic Division clash set to take place at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario. The place is affectionately known as the Great White North. The tip-off is at 7:35 PM ET and is set to be broadcasted on SPORTSNET. In the last eleven games between both parties, the Raptors have won every one of these contests against Brooklyn. As a whole, Toronto sits at the top of the Eastern Conference standings. Many overtures are being concerted that Toronto may be a Championship contending team. However, the fact that Cleveland and Boston exist in the East diminishes such a forecast. As for Brooklyn, their season is all but done. The Nets have been a regular cellar dweller. In the last meeting between both teams in Brooklyn earlier this month, the Raps beat the Nets by a score of 116-102.
There are several key betting trends worth taking into consideration. First off, the Nets are just 9-25 SU on the road away from Brooklyn. Secondly, the Raptors have been a scary team to face in Toronto. The Great White North has been great for the Raptors. Toronto is 29-6 SU at home this season. Against the spread, Toronto is just 19-16 at home. Brooklyn is 22-12 ATS on the road. This shows how premiums and inflated point spreads can be utilized in teams that have strengths and weaknesses on the road or at home.
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Toronto is a tough team to plod away from given the nature of their opponent in this competition. As mentioned, the Raptors have a clear home-court advantage and one of the most dynamic players on the court in all of the NBA in point guard Kyle Lowry. The Raptors are a well-oiled machine that had won 19 out of 21 heading into their most recent loss against Cleveland.
There is little appeal in backing Brooklyn other than the fact that the motivation may be there to try to take it to the biggest team in the East as a moral victory. Moreover, the Nets have nothing to lose in this game and as a result can be quite dangerous.
From a public money perspective, 98% of the consensus cash and 94% of the ticket action is with the Raptors against the spread. In the Over/Under, we have seen 94% of the cash and 90% ticket action come in on the Over.
There is an affinity to back Toronto here given the nature of this competition, and as a result, there is a set up here for a huge overlay. This scenario is a common fade opportunity we like to cash in on when having a chance to target a public team in an environment conducive toward their success. Very simply, when you back Toronto at home, you can expect to do so. A premium is added as a result, and the number offered is likely quite inflated. There is no dispute that Toronto will win this game. The question always is by how much? The fact remains teams like Brooklyn take back inflated numbers because no one else would want a part of them otherwise. This is where we attack and take advantage.
KEITHs PICK: Brooklyn +12. - Guys are you looking for a sportsbook that has the best odds on NBA games including money line and point spread lines? Check out 5Dimes for -105 style pricing on most North American sports!