Brooklyn Nets vs. Miami Heat Free Pick 3/31/18

Brooklyn Nets (24-51 SU, 42-33 ATS ) vs. Miami Heat (41-35 SU, 38-32-6 ATS)
Time: Saturday, March 31, 2018 7:05 PM EDT
Where: American Airlines Arena Miami, FL
TV: FSN
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem

Odds Brooklyn +275, Miami -345
Point Spread: Miami -7.5
Total Line: 211.5

The Brooklyn Nets and the Miami Heat will square off in an Eastern Conference clash scheduled to take place at the American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida. Tip-off is at 7:05 PM EDTand aired on FSN for regional demographics. Brooklyn had won the last two meetings in this conference series and were the authors of an upset at home in January when they hosted the Heat. The Nets would win 105-98, despite closing as a three-point underdog.

Both teams enter off wins, but the effect of these victories have differing effects. For Miami, every win affords them an opportunity to get the best seed possible in the Eastern Conference Playoffs. For the Nets, a win is just a morale victory as they have been formally eliminated from post-season contention. The Nets are classed as one of the weakest squads in the East while Miami has shown it is a comparable contender in the playoffs. Miami authored an impressive 97-78 win over the Cleveland Cavaliers at home on March 27th.

Betting Trends

There are several key betting trends worth focusing on in this contest. First off, Miami is 6-3-1 ATS against Brooklyn in the last ten meetings. Brooklyn is 10-26 SU away from home while Miami is 24-13 SU at home. The Under is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between both parties.

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Handicapping Analysis

The Nets can always be a threat because they are consistently off the radar. Brooklyn is a team that is often accompanied by lofty point spreads albeit no one would back the under any other pretense. The Nets were an outfit that had once established itself as a premier offensive unit across the league. The Nets remain here with an edge in points per game and rebounding which can be a problem for the Heat to cover this number.

The Heat are a playoff team and with that expectations are a bit higher. Very simply, Miami on paper is a better basketball team than the Nets. Moreover, the Heat also have home court advantage to work with here as they have been solid in the AA all season long. The Nets are known to struggle mightily outside of New York’s biggest borough, and these variables make Miami a good option in this market.

Public Money

From the early going, we have seen a lean take shape on the Nets. The lean is reflected in the Heat opening as a 9.5-point favorite before the line diminished to 7.5 where it currently stands. 76% of the public cash and 61% of the ticket action is on the Heat. Contrarily, 100% of the consensus like the Nets here in public forums. The Over/Under has remained idle despite 95% of the cash and 71% of the ticket action coming in on the Under.

Nets at Heat Pick ATS

Motivation levels will be the deciding factor in this game. Sure, Brooklyn may hold an emotional edge with their recent tab of wins against Miami, but this occurred when the Nets believed they still had a chance of playing games of consequence. The bottom line, the Nets have had yet another lackluster season and at this point, grabbing a great draft lottery pick is more of a priority than a win that is ultimately quite meaningless. In this game, we will see Brooklyn rotate a lot of its personnel. Miami, on the other hand, will be looking to continue their good form and defeat a pest while doing so. The Heat will run away with this game. Given the fact, we saw the lumber reduce. This is not such a long swim back in comparison and chances are we are taking advantage of a short-priced favorite here.

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