Brooklyn Nets vs. Milwaukee Bucks Prediction ATS 2/26/22

Brooklyn Nets (31-29 SU, 22-37-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (36-24 SU, 26-34-0 ATS)
When: Saturday February 26 2022, 08:30 PM (ET)
Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
TV: ABC

Point Spread: BRO +10.5/MIL -10.5 (Opened at MIL -10 at Bovada)
Total: 234.5 (Opened at 234 )
Money Line: Brooklyn Nets No +386/Milwaukee Bucks -520 Odds
Power Rating: MIL -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Brooklyn Nets PG Kyrie Irving IN, SG Seth Curry, SF Bruce Brown, PF James Johnson, C Andre Drummond
Milwaukee Bucks PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen Off Inj, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis

Key Injuries

Nets Kevin Durant: Knee (Out) Ben Simmons: Conditioning (Out)

Bucks Grayson Allen: hip (QUESTIONABLE) DeAndre’ Bembry: thumb (QUESTIONABLE) Pat Connaughton: finger (OUT) George Hill: neck (OUT) Brook Lopez: back (OUT)

The Milwaukee Bucks host the Brooklyn Nets in an Eastern Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for for 8:30 PM ET at the Fiserv Forum.

Recent Form

The Brooklyn Nets come into this game with an overall record of 31-29, placing them 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Brooklyn is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 18-13. Over the Nets’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. In this stretch, Brooklyn’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 108.0 points per game. Combined, the Nets’ last five opponents are giving up 108.0 points per contest. In this recent cold stretch, the Nets are allowing an average of 110.0 points per game, similar to their usual rate of 111.1. In the Brooklyn Nets’ most recent game, the team fell to Philadelphia by a score of 129-106.

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with an overall record of 36-24, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Milwaukee is above .500 at home, holding a record of 20-11. Over the Buck’s last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. During this stretch, Milwaukee is averaging 119.0 points per game, 6.0 points more than their season average of 113.2. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Buck’s recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 122.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 109.8. In the Milwaukee Bucks’ most recent game, the team fell to Philadelphia by a score of 123-120.

Individual Player Analysis

As Brooklyn travels to take on the Milwaukee Bucks, the Nets’ leading scorer is Kevin Durant. Through 36 games, Durant is averaging 29 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 42.0% of his games. However, with Durant out for tonight’s matchup, look for Kyrie Irving to take on the primary scoring role. On the season, Irving is averaging 24 points per game. So far, the Bucks are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 49.02% of their games, placing them 16th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in scoring, averaging 29 points across his 50 games. Throughout the season, Antetokounmpo has outscored his season average in 48.0% of his outings. Given that Brooklyn’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Antetokounmpo should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Nets have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 55.77% of their games, giving them a rank of 16th among NBA defenses.

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Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 21 of Milwaukee’s 61 games, leading to a winning percentage of 62%. So far, the Nets have played 11 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 11 times, by an average margin of -14.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into tonight’s matchup, the Bucks have won both meetings this season.

How the Public is Betting the Nets vs Bucks

67% are betting the Bucks against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 232

Betting Trends Worth Noting

Nets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Nets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into this matchup, the Bucks are the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. However, they are just three game’s behind the top-seeded Heat. I expect the reigning NBA champions to lock in for the second half of the season and make a push for the top spot in the East. This starts with a win over a depleted Nets team. Look for the Bucks to cover the spread.