Bucks vs. Celtics Game 1 Odds & Picks

by | May 1, 2022 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (55-32 SU, 42-45-0 ATS) vs. Boston Celtics (55-31 SU, 46-37-3 ATS)
When: Sunday May 01 2022, 01:00 PM (ET)
Where: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
TV: ABC

Point Spread: MIL +4.5/BOS -4.5 (Opened BOS -4.5 at (BetOnline))
Total: 217.5 (Opened at 218.5)
Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks 154/Boston Celtics -197
Power Rating: BOS -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Milwaukee Bucks PG Jrue Holiday, SG Wesley Matthews, SF Giannis Antetokounmpo, PF Bobby Portis, C Brook Lopez

Boston Celtics PG Marcus Smart, SG Jaylen Brown P, SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams

Key Injuries

Milwaukee Bucks
Khris Middleton: Knee (OUT)
George Hill: Abdominal (OUT)

Boston Celtics
Jaylen Brown: Hamstring (PROBABLE)

The Boston Celtics host the Milwaukee Bucks in an Eastern-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 01:00 PM ET at the TD Garden.

Recent Form

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with an overall record of 51-31, placing them 3rd in the Eastern Conference. So far, Milwaukee is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 26-17. Over their last five games, the Bucks have played well, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Milwaukee’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 110.0 points per game. Combined, the Bucks’ last five opponents are giving up 112.0 points per contest. Milwaukee comes into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 95.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 111.2. In the Milwaukee Bucks’ most recent game, Milwaukee took down Chicago by a score of 116-100

The Boston Celtics come into this game with an overall record of 51-31, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Boston is above .500 at home, holding a record of 30-13. The Celtics have played well over their last five games, picking up 5 wins. During this stretch, Boston is averaging 119.0 points per game, 7.0 points more than their season average of 111.8. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 112.0 points per contest. Even though the Celtics have been adding to the win column, their opponents have had no trouble scoring the ball, averaging 109.0 points per game, up from Boston’s usual rate of 104.7. In the Boston Celtics’ most recent game, Boston took down Brooklyn by a score of 116-112.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Milwaukee travels to take on the Boston Celtics, the Bucks’ leading scorer is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Through 68 games, Antetokounmpo is averaging 29 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 50.0% of his games. So far, the Celtics are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.0% of their games, placing them 17th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Jayson Tatum leads the Celtics in scoring, averaging 26 points across his 76 games. Throughout the season, Tatum has outscored his season average in 47.0% of his outings. Given that Milwaukee’s defense has struggled to slow down their opponent’s top scorers, Jayson Tatum should be in line for a big performance. So far, the Bucks have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.67% of their games, giving them a rank of 22nd among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

The Bucks come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 111.5 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Milwaukee is winning at a rate of 62%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 15.0 points. On the other side, the Celtics hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 41 games as the better defensive team, picking up 28 wins (68%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics have met up for 4 games. In their last meeting, Milwaukee picked up a 127-121 win.

How the Public is Betting the Bucks vs Celtics

67% are betting the Celtics against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 217.5

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.
  • Celtics are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Boston Celtics come into this matchup riding high, after sweeping the Brooklyn Nets in their first-round series. This was especially impressive, as the Nets were not a typical 7 seed, as they featured Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. Throughout the series, Boston showed off their defensive prowess, consistently frustrating Brooklyn’s start players. On the other side, the Bucks rebounded from a surprising game 2 loss to Chicago as well as an injury to Khris Middleton. With the spread sitting at 4.5 points in favor of Boston, look for the Celtics to pick up the win and cover the spread. Milwaukee is coming off 3 straight blowout wins and will have to adjust to the Celtics’ defensive intensity. I recommend taking Boston ATS.