Bucks vs. Heat Pont Spread – Free Pick

by | Jan 14, 2023 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (27-15 SU, 22-17-3 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (23-20 SU, 17-24-2 ATS)
When: Saturday, January 14th, 1:00 PM (ET)
Where: the Arena, FL, Miami
TV: ABC

Point Spread: MIL -1.0/ MIA -1
Total: 219.5
Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -105/ -115

Notable Injuries

Bucks

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Questionable) Knee
  • Khris Middleton (Out) Knee
  • Serge Ibaka (Out) Personal

Heat

  • Kyle Lowry (Out) Knee
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Out) Foot
  • Udonis Haslem (Probable) Achilles
  • Duncan Robinson (Out) Finger
  • Tyler Herro (Questionable) Achilles
  • Caleb Martin (Probable) Quad
  • Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle
  • Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Recent Form

On the campign, Milwaukee is 27-15 overall. When taking to the road, Milwaukee has a mark of 11-10 and a win percentage of 52%. Currently, the team is 3rd in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 22-17-3 vs. the spread. When looking at how the team has performed of late straight and vs. the spread, they are 3-2 in their past five games and 3-1-1 ATS. Over their past ten games, they are 5-5 SU and 5-4-1 ATS.

Today, Milwaukee will be aiming to get in the win column. In their last matchup, they were defeated by the Heat with a score of 108-102. Jrue Holiday led the team with 24 points. Despite being 6-point underdogs, the team managed to earn an ATS push.

Heading into the game, Miami is 23-20 overall. When playing at home, Miami has a mark of 13-9 and a win percentage of 59%. Currently, the team is 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 17-24-2 vs. the spread. Miami will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Milwaukee as they are the winners of 2 straight games.

Miami is looking to build on their most recent 108-102 win over the Bucks. The Heat were paced by a team-high 28 points from Gabe Vincent. When looking at the spread, Miami and the Bucks finished with an ATS push.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Heat picked up a 108-102 win over the Bucks. When looking at the outcome vs. the spread, Miami entered as the 6.0-point favorite, resulting in an ATS push. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. In terms of betting, Miami has an ATS record of 3-1-1 in the previous five matchups vs. Milwaukee. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +6 points per game in favor of the Heat. A combined average of 224 points per game was achieved in these matchups, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

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Analysis

Coming into the game, Milwaukee’s offense is ranked just 21st in scoring at 112.2 points per game. This has come while being the 15th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Bucks are averaging 99.8 possessions per contest. The three-point shot has been a big part of Milwaukee’s offensive game plan, as they are ranked 5th in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 34.7% of their looks from the outside. On defense, the Bucks are allowing an average of 112.13 points per game, placing them 19th in the league. So far, opposing teams are hitting 35.73% of their looks from deep vs. Milwaukee.

Heading into the game, Giannis Antetokounmpo is listed as questionable on the injury report. This season, he leads the team with a per-game scoring average of 31.0. Currently, Brook Lopez is 2nd on the team in scoring at 14.5 points per game.

This season, Miami is averaging just 108.8 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.1 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 24th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 36.2 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Heading into this matchup, Miami is in jeopardy of not having Tyler Herro in the lineup as he is questionable. This season, he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 21.2 points per game. So far, Bam Adebayo leads the team in scoring and is averaging 21.5 points per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The Bucks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games.
  • The Bucks are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS loss.
  • The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning straight-up record.
  • The Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

I was really surprised to see the over/under set at 219.5. I make this line to be no more than 210, so I am stoked to bet the UNDER!