Bucks vs. T-Wolves Odds & Predictions

by | Nov 4, 2022 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (7-0 SU, 6-1-0 ATS) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (4-4 SU, 3-5-0
ATS)

When: Friday, November 4th, 10:00 PM (ET)
Where: Target Center, MN, Minneapolis
TV: ESPN

Point Spread: MIL -3.5/ MIN +3.5
Total: 227.0
Money Line: Milwaukee Bucks -149/ +122

Notable Injuries

Bucks

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (Probable) Knee
  • Khris Middleton (Out) Wrist
  • Joe Ingles (Out) ACL
  • Pat Connaughton (Out) Calf
  • Sandro Mamukelashvili (Out) Concussion
  • AJ Green (Out) Nasal Fracture

Timberwolves

  • Rudy Gobert (Questionable) Illness
  • Anthony Edwards (Questionable) Illness

Recent Form

So far, the Bucks have put together an overall record of 7-0, while going 6-1-0 vs the spread.
Over the team’s 7 game win streak, they have an average scoring differential of 11.29 points per
game.

The Bucks will look to keep things rolling, as they previously beat the Pistons by a score of
116-91. Heading into the game, they were 11-point favorites on the spread, giving them an ATS
win. Not only did the team win the game, but they also outscored the Pistons in every quarter. In
the win, Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team in scoring with 32 points on a field goal percentage
of 45.8%.

The Timberwolves come into today’s matchup with an overall record of 4-4. So far, the team has
gone 3-5-0 against the spread. Against the Bucks, the Timberwolves are looking to break out of 2
game losing streak. These defeats have come on an average scoring differential of -9.0 points per
contest.

Minnesota is trying to bounce back from a 116-107 loss to the Suns. Going into this game, the
team was 4-point underdogs on the spread, giving them an ATS loss. Minnesota was not able to turn
things around in the 2nd half, as they trailed the Suns by 9 going into halftime. In the loss,
Karl-Anthony Towns led the team in scoring with 24 points on a field goal percentage of
50.0%.

The Historicals

The Timberwolves will look to carry over last year’s success vs Milwaukee, as they won both
games of the series. The average point total of these two meetings was 226.5, with Minnesota
winning by scores of 113-108 and 119-119. Similar to their season-long average, the Bucks
averaged 113.5 points per game vs the Timberwolves. On the other side, Minnesota saw an
improvement in their scoring numbers when playing the Bucks, as they averaged 125.5 points per
game in these matchups. Across the last 5 matchups between the teams, Minnesota has gone 3-2 vs
the spread. However, the Bucks actually have a positive scoring margin in these games at +6
points per game. A combined average of 234 points per game was achieved in these matchups,
leading to an over-under mark of 3-2.

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Analysis

This season, the Milwaukee offense is ranked 19th in the NBA in scoring at 113.3 points per
game. So far, the Bucks are averaging 99.4 possessions per game, which places them below the NBA
average. The Bucks are a candidate to see their offensive numbers improve, as they are a strong
team at scoring inside. So far, they are 12th in made 2-point field goals per game.

Against the Timberwolves, the Bucks will need a stronger defensive effort as they are ranked
just 19th in points allowed.

Giannis Antetokounmpo could be in line for a big game vs the Timberwolves, as they were one of
the worst units at defending power forwards in the 2021-2022 regular season.

For the season, the Timberwolves’ offensive unit is ranked just 14th in scoring at 114.1
points per contest. Coming into today’s game, the Timberwolves will be looking to improve their
3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 11.1 made 3’s per game. If the team is going
to improve their scoring numbers, they will need to become more efficient with their shots as
Minnesota is already one of the leaders in pace, averaging 103.1 possessions per game.

Against the Bucks, the Timberwolves will need a stronger defensive effort as they are ranked
just 24th in points allowed.

One thing to watch will be if Anthony Edwards will be able to take advantage of his matchup vs
the Bucks. Last year, they were ranked just 20th in points allowed to shooting guards.

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Betting Trends

  • Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Timberwolves are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
  • Timberwolves are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

These teams matchup very well and the T-Wolves are actually riding a two-game winning streak
vs. the Bucks, albeit one of those games Milwaukee was missing Giannis. I’m betting the underdog
Timberwolves +3!