RBD leans on his handicapping models and Sunday trends to shape a total pick for Cleveland vs Toronto.
Cleveland at Toronto
NBA Pick on the O/U Line
Easy like Sunday morning???
I’m looking at two spots today, both based on my unique handicapping models.
The one I chart under the moniker T2 says the Cleveland/Toronto game goes Over the total this morning.
T2 has a record of 9-18, giving me a 67% Fade.
And then there’s that “Sunday Morning Thing.”
Nobody likes to go to work in the morning.
Especially on Sundays and Mondays.
I don’t track days of the week for most sports, but in the NBA and WNBA I try to keep an eye on days when they’re playing in an unusual time slot.
Most games are played in the evening, not Sunday mornings.
Last year, the first Sunday morning of playoff games had Memphis/OKC playing the early morning opener.
The total was 232.
The game landed on 211.
That’s an Under by 21 points.
The next Sunday, the early game was Detroit/New York.
The total was 216.
The game landed on 187.
That’s an Under by 29 points.
This year, the first Sunday morning playoff game was Philly/Boston.
The total was 216′.
The game landed on 214.
Last Sunday Philly/Boston had a total of 216′.
It landed on 214 (in fact, all four games played last Sunday stayed Under the total.)
There may be no rhyme or reason to this Sunday Morning Thing” but combined with the numbers from my model I’m taking the early game Under.
Today’s game opened at 220′.
Right now that number is still available at about 25% of the books that I looked at, the rest have gone down to 220 and 219′.
I grabbed it at 220.
I may have one more play for later today.
T1 says LAL/Hou goes Over.
T1 has a record of 3-6 on Overs.
T2 says LAL/Hou goes Over.
T2 has a record of 9-18 on Overs.
That’s a combined 12-24, 67% a Fade.
And when I have a rare match, when BOTH models say the game will go Over in the playoffs, the record is 1-3.
Those are some pretty strong stats telling me to take the Under tonight.
I’ll wait till the morning game is done before I make a decision on the night game.
(The previous sentence originally read “I’ll wait until the morning game is over” but because I’m betting it Under I didn’t want to jinx myself. Sports bettors are a superstitious lot.)
Be sure to check the PredictEm Forum for updates later today.
My buy:
Cle/Tor Un 220
Recap: 1-0
Record: 3-1
Review: Last buy was Houston/LAL Un 208.
Thought I was in trouble after an ugly first quarter saw them combine for 62 points, a run rate to put them on pace for 248, FORTY points higher than the number I bet.
I thought my bet was dead so I turned the game off (just kidding, I rarely watch this crap.)
(Also, the previous sentence read, “I thought I was dead” but I changed “I ” to “my bet.” Like I said, I’m superstitious. Don’t want to invite bad karma.)
Fortunately, a 36 point Q2 put me back on pace and the game landed on 205.
