Charlotte Hornets vs. Brooklyn Nets Free Pick 3/21/18

Charlotte Hornets (30-41 SU, 29-38-4 ATS) vs. Brooklyn Nets (23-48, 40-31 ATS)
Time: March 21st, 2018 7:35 PM ET
Where: Barclays Center Brooklyn, NY


Point Spread: Brooklyn -1
Total Line: 221.5

This market has been one with a lot of activity from the get-go. We saw the Hornets open initially as a 1.5-point favorite, but a 2.5-point line movement has swung downward to reflect the action on Brooklyn. The favorite is now the underdog in this contest and creates a value situation for us. On the Money Line, the Nets are priced at -107 while the Hornets priced as a -103. The Over/Under currently sits at 221.5 after falling by two points from the open.

The Charlotte Hornets will hit the road as they head to the Brooklyn Nets in an Eastern Conference clash set to take place at the Barclay’s Center in Brooklyn, New York. The tip-off is 7:35 PM ET and is due to be aired for regional audiences on both YES and FSN. On March 8th, the Nets swarmed into The Hive and handed Charlotte a 125-111 loss.

Betting Trends

There are not many noteworthy trends in this contest worth mentioning other than the fact both teams play far better at home. On the road, Charlotte is just 11-24 SU. In this series overall, the Hornets had won three straight leading into their previous loss against Brooklyn. The most prominent annotation worth bringing up is the fact that Brooklyn is 8-2 ATS against Charlotte in their last ten. This virtually nullifies the leverage Brooklyn may normally find itself getting to entice action on them. Situationally, the Nets are more prone to be overvalued and the line movements in this contest mirror this propensity.


Handicapping Analysis

The fact that Hornets enter on a two-game losing streak allows us to get them at a more affable price. Very simply, Charlotte has been outclassed by opponents in their last two outings. These two teams that defeated Charlotte are familiar foes of Brooklyn albeit Philadelphia, and New York is in the same division as them. Losing by an average margin of 18.5-points diminishes the stock in this outfit, and more often than not it sets us up to get the better team at a better price. Charlotte owns one of the most electric players in the game in guard Kemba Walker. Against a defense like Brooklyns, the man can simply go off.

The most compelling feature of Brooklyn is that they are going against a basketball team that does not play well on the road. Moreover, the Nets have the mojo in this series be that they were able to sneak into Charlotte and pull an upset against the Hornets on their home court. This momentum combined with the two-game winning streak that Brooklyn is riding offers a lot of luster on the Nets in this contest.

Public Money

Presently at this time, we have seen 87% of the cash action come in on the Over in this market. The public play is further reflected by 67% of the ticket action also coming in on the Over. 100% of the consensus like Brooklyn in this market from a forum-level perspective.

Hornets at Nets Prediction

Situationally, fading the Nets may yield dividends in this spot. For the first time in perhaps a long time, the Nets are likely not taking back high point spreads that we are accustomed to seeing next to their name. The result of the last meeting between the two is bound to create an overreaction. When you toss in the narrative of home court advantage, Brooklyn seems like a must-play. We disagree. The fact remains that Brooklyn is one of the weakest units in the NBA and this market like many is built to entice action on the Nets. This time, the stakes are different as many have bitten. Charlotte will be in a position now to respond, and we will play this one outright. Charlotte on the Money Line gets the nod for this Eastern Conference duel.

KEITH’s PICK: Charlotte 103 (Money Line Play). Guys are you looking for a sportsbook that has the best odds on NBA games including money line and point spread lines? Check out 5Dimes for -105 style pricing on most North American sports!