Cleveland Cavaliers (57-15 SU 37-34-1 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (42-28 SU 37-34-1 ATS) AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX Friday March 26, 2010 on Fox Sports Southwest
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Cavaliers -1/Spurs +1
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Tonight in a non-conference match up in the Lone Star State the San Antonio Spurs host the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have the East, pretty much, wrapped up, but every remaining game for the Spurs is very important.
San Antonio is tied with Portland for the 8th and last playoff spot in the Western Conference and each team will try to avoid the 8th spot so they do not have to play the Lakers in the 1st round of the playoffs.
The Cavs are streaking, as they have won 8 straight and are 9-1 in their last 10 games and the Spurs are coming off a loss, but are still a solid 6-4 in their last 10 games.
This season the Spurs are 25-11 at home and the Cavaliers are 26-11 on the road.
The Spurs will make the playoffs, but it is not likely they will make much noise in the post season. They have a horrible record against teams that have a better record than they do whom they will be facing in the post-season. Not only that, but the Spurs have lost 8 straight to the Cavs including their last 4 in San Antonio.
Tim Duncan (18.2 ppg 10.3 rpg) has to play well tonight, but he only had 6 points on 2/12 shooting in the Spurs last game and in his last 2 games against the Cavs Duncan has only averaged 9.5 ppg.
Manu Ginobili (15.6 ppg) has must play well tonight and he has been solid since taking over for an injured Tony Parker in the lineup averaging 23.2 ppg. In the last match up between these 2 teams Ginobili had a season high 38 points, but the Spurs still lost.
You know King James (29.8 ppg) will get his points tonight, but San Antonio has to keep the other Cleveland scorers of Antawn Jamison (18.9 ppg) and Mo Williams (15.6 ppg) from having big scoring games.
In their last game the Spurs lost to the L.A. Lakers 92-83 on Wednesday night. The high scorer for San Antonio in the game was Ginobili going for 24 points on 8/18 shooting. For the game the Spurs were ice cold only shooting 30/80 from the floor for a FG% of 37.5%. On D the Spurs allowed the Lakers to shoot 36/79 for a FG% of 45.6%.
The Cavs also played on Wednesday night but they beat the New Orleans Hornets 105-92. LeBron was the high scorer for Cleveland going for 38 points on 15/22 shooting. For the game the Cavs were en fuego shooting 44/77 for a FG% of 57.1%. On defense the Cavs allowed the Hornets to shoot 37/84 from the field for a FG% of 44%.
This season the Cavs rank 8th in the league in scoring (102.3 ppg) and the Spurs rank 14th (101.1 ppg). On defense both teams are solid, as the Cavs rank 3rd in opponents’ points allowed (94.7 ppg) and the Spurs rank 8th (96.4 ppg). Both teams are solid on the boards, as the Cavs have a rebounding differential of +4.2 rpg and the Spurs are at +3.0 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Cavs rank 1st (97.30) and the Spurs rank 9th (93.49).
Cleveland is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game and is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS win.
Cleveland has an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games and have an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games.
San Antonio is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games against teams with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.
San Antonio has an Over record of 3-1-1 in their last 5 games and have an Under record of 3-0-1 in their last 4 home games against teams with a winning road record.
On the injury front SF LeBron James is day-to-day for Cleveland while San Antonio is not reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Prediction: The Spurs are a solid team at home, but they have played poorly all year against good teams and the Cavs are not just good, but great. Cleveland will continue their dominance over the Spurs, as they will have no problems winning this game.