Dallas Mavericks (53-27 SU 34-44-2 ATS) vs. L.A. Clippers (28-52 SU 34-44-2 ATS) STAPLES Center, Los Angeles, CA 10:30 PM EST Monday April 12, 2010 on NBA TV
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Mavericks -11/LA Clippers +11
Tonight in La La Land in a Western Conference match up the L.A. Clippers host the Dallas Mavericks. This game means nothing to the Clippers, as a huge shock, they will miss the playoffs, but the Mavericks are in the #2 spot in the West and win this game and their last game they will lock up the #2 seed in the conference. That is important, as they would not have to face the defending champion L.A. Lakers until the conference finals.
The Clippers are headed towards another high draft pick, but they can play spoiler in this game.
The Clippers are coming off a win, but are only 2-8 in their last 10 games while the Mavs have won 3 straight and are 7-3 in their last 10 games.
This season the Clippers are 20-19 at home and the Mavs are 26-14 on the road.
The Mavs have had no trouble beating weak teams as of last winning 2 of their last 3 games against non-playoff teams by an average of 16.6 ppg.
Clippers’ PG Baron Davis (15.3 ppg 8 assists per game) may miss this game with a wrist injury and that will really hurt their chances to win. C Chris Kaman (18.5 ppg 9.3 rpg) will have to play well tonight and against the Mavs this season he has averaged 24.5 ppg.
The Clippers are one of the worst offensive teams in the league, so they will have to slow down the tempo tonight and make tonight’s contest a half court game.
The Clippers really have to worry about Dirk Nowitzki (25.1 ppg), who has scored 39 and 40 points in his last 2 games. Drew Gooden will have to get in his face and not allow him to drive to the hoop or get open looks from deep.
The Clippers season has been nothing to write home about, but if they can win this game they can, at least, assure themselves of having a winning record at home.
In their last game the Mavs laid a 126-108 beat down on the Sacramento Kings on Saturday. The high scorer for Dallas in the game was Dirk Nowitzki going for 39 points on 12/20 shooting. For the game the Mavs shot well going 42/79 from the floor for a solid FG% of 53.6%. On D the Mavs allowed the Kings to shoot 40/85 for a FG% of 47.1%.
The Clippers also won their last game on Saturday beating the Golden State Warriors 107-104. The high scorer for L.A. in the game was Chris Kaman going for 27 points on 11/17 shooting and he also grabbed 11 boards. For the game the Clippers shot 42/83 for a FG% of 50.6%. On D the Clippers actually were solid holding the Warriors to only 37/92 from the floor for a FG% of 40.2%.
This season the Mavs rank 11th in the league in scoring (101.9 ppg) and the Clippers rank 27th (95.6 ppg). The Mavs rank 15th in the league in opponents’ points allowed (99.5 ppg) and the Clippers rank 19th (102 ppg). The Clippers have been slightly better on the boards this season with a rebounding differential of +0.8 rpg while the Mavs are at -1.1 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Mavs rank 11th (93.33) and the Clippers rank 26th (85.21).
Dallas is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, and # 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games against teams with a losing record.
Dallas has an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 games and an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record.
L.A. is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a winning road record, and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%.
L.A. has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games and an Under record of 12-4 in their last 16 home games against teams with a winning road record.
On the injury front SF Shawn Marion is day-to-day for Dallas while L.A. is not reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: Dallas is entering the playoffs playing well and I don’t think they will waste this advantage to stay in the #2 spot in the West since they play San Antonio in their season finale. The Clippers are a decent home team, but have had major problems beating elite teams in the league and that trend will continue tonight. Look for Nowitzki to have a good game and for the Mavs to have too much offense for the Clippers to deal with, as they will win this game comfortably.