Dallas Mavericks (55-27 SU 36-44-2 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (50-32 SU 43-39 ATS) AT&T Center, San Antonio, TX 8 PM EST Thursday April 29, 2010 on TNT
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Mavericks +3.5 / Spurs -3.5
Over/Under: 191
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The Spurs lead this best of 7 series 3-2.
Tonight in Game 6 of a Western Conference 1st round playoff series the San Antonio Spurs host the Dallas Mavericks in an elimination game. The Mavs won Game 5 at home, but still are down 3-2 in their series and have to win this game or they will be out of the playoffs. The Mavs were one of the best road teams in the league this season, but have lost both games in San Antonio in this series.
This season the Spurs were 29-12 at home and the Mavericks were 27-14 on the road.
In Game 5 on Tuesday night the Mavericks beat the Spurs 103-81.
The Spurs were down early and they played their reserves for most of the 2nd half of the Game 5 blowout.
Tim Duncan needs to snap out of his slump, as in the last 2 games in the series he has scored a total of 15 points after scoring at least 25 in their first 3 games.
Manu Ginobili broke his nose in Game 3 and has to wear a protective mask and since the injury he is only shooting 26% from the floor. In Game 5 the Spurs were ice cold from deep only hitting 3/16 from beyond the 3-point arc and for the game only shot a FG% of 35.9%.
Dallas likes to get out and run and had 23 fast break points in Game 5. The Spurs have a better half court team, so if they can slow the tempo of this game they have the advantage.
Mavs’ SF Caron Butler had 35 points in Game 5 and the Spurs have to defend him better and not allow him to beat them.
San Antonio has to hold onto the rock tonight, as in Game 5 they committed 18 turnovers.
The high scorer for the Spurs in Game 5 was Tony Parker going for 18 points on 6/16 shooting and Caron Butler was the high scorer for the Mavs going for 35 points on 12/24 shooting. For the game the Spurs only shot 28/78 from the floor for a weak FG% of 35.9% while the Mavs shot 37/84 for a FG% of 44%. The Mavs had more rebounds in the game (52-41) and the Spurs had 18 turnovers while the Mavs had 12.
This season the Mavs ranked 11th in the league in scoring (102 ppg) and the Spurs ranked 15th (101.4 ppg). The Spurs ranked 8th this season in opponents’ points allowed (96.3 ppg) and the Mavs ranked 15th (99.3 ppg). The Spurs were a much better team on the boards this season with a rebounding differential of +3.3 rpg while the Mavs were in the negative at -1.2 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Spurs rank 6th (94.16) and the Mavs rank 10th (93.51).
Dallas is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games, and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Dallas has an Under record of 5-0-1 in their last 6 games and an Under record of 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
San Antonio is 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games, 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite.
San Antonio has an Under record of 5-0-1 in their last 6 games and an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 home games.
In the last 6 games between these 2 teams the home team is 4-1-1 ATS.
On the injury front neither team is reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: The Spurs really didn’t show up in Game 5 in Dallas and they will be a different team tonight in front of their home crowd. Tim Duncan will have a big game and the Spurs will play solid defense. The Spurs will win this game, cover the spread, and close out this series advancing to the Western Conference semifinals.
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