Denver Nuggets at Los Angeles Clippers Odds & Pick 12/26/21

by | Dec 26, 2021 | nba

Denver Nuggets (15-16 SU, 13-18 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Clippers (17-15 SU, 14-18 ATS)
When: Sunday December 26 2021, 09:00 PM (ET)
Where: Staples Center: Los Angeles, California
TV: Bally Sports SoCal

Point Spread: DEN -4.5/LAC 4.5 (Opened at DEN -4 at GTBets)
Total: 214.5 (Opened at 212.5)
Money Line: Denver -167/Los Angeles 135)
Power Rating: DEN -4

Probable Starting Lineups

Nuggets: PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic
Clippers: PG Justise Winslow, SG Luke Kennard, SF Terance Mann, PF Nicolas Batum, C Ivica Zubac

Key Injuries

Nuggets Bol Bol: illness (OUT) PJ Dozier: knee (OUT) Aaron Gordon: hamstring (QUESTIONABLE) Markus Howard: knee (QUESTIONABLE) Jamal Murray: knee (OUT) Michael Porter Jr.: back (OUT)

Clippers Isaiah Hartenstein: ankle (QUESTIONABLE) Reggie Jackson: illness (OUT) Luke Kennard: hip (QUESTIONABLE) Kawhi Leonard: knee (OUT) Marcus Morris Sr.: illness (OUT) Jason Preston: foot (OUT)

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets enter today’s game, losing two straight games. Over their past ten games, Denver has won at a .500 rate, going 5-10. As the road team, the Nuggets travel to Los Angeles with a negative plus-minus of rating -2.8 points. Overall the team is ranked 17th among NBA teams in point differential (3.7). Among NBA teams, they have played the 7th toughest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they have covered in 41.90% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -0.7.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is center Nikola Jokic. So far, Jokic is averaging 25.88 points per game. This output places him 1st in his position group. Denver’s big man is also contributing 13.5 rebounders per night. The Nuggets’ best three-point shooter has been Will Barton, connecting on 2.37 shots from downtown per game.

The Los Angeles Clippers enter today’s game, having won 6 of their past ten games. When playing at Staples Center, the Clippers are an above .500 team, having gone 12-8. On the season, LA has played the 2nd easiest schedule. As they get set to host the Nuggets, Los Angeles has a positive home plus-minus of 1.8 points. Overall the Clippers are ranked 15th among NBA teams in point differential (5.7).

For bettors, taking the Los Angeles Clippers to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they have covered the spread in 43.80% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -2.5.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is SF Paul George. So far, George is averaging 24.65 points per game. However, the team will need its supporting cast to step up as both George and Reggie Jackson will miss tonight’s game. The Clippers’ best three-point shooter has been Luke Kennard, connecting on 2.81 shots from downtown per game. Ivica Zubac has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 7.94 boards per game.

An Eye On Pace

The Denver Nuggets come into this game ranked 22nd in pace at 97 possessions per game. So far, the team has struggled to turn their possessions into trips to the free-throw line, ranking last among NBA teams. Relative to their pace rating, the team has still managed to rank 12 in three-point attempts. On the other side, the Clippers are the 12 ranked teams in possessions per game, and like their opponent, they struggle to get to the free-throw line, opting for three-point shots.

Key Matchups

On the year, the Clippers have been one of the league’s best defensive units, giving up just 104.8 points per game. This mark is especially impressive as they prefer to play at an up-tempo pace. So far, they are the NBA’s best team at keeping teams off the free-throw line. However, given that LA is missing several key players and Denver is not reliant on free throws, I expect the Nuggets to have a good night on offense.

The Historicals

Tonight’s matchup between the Nuggets and Clippers will be their first meeting of the year. Last season, the Nuggets took 2 of 3 games.

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How the Public is Betting the Nuggets vs. Clippers

55% are betting the Nuggets against the spread.
56% are wagering on the game to go Over the posted total of 212.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
  • Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a straight-up loss.
  • Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.
  • Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Even when the Clippers are fully healthy, they still struggle to score the ball. Through 32 games, the team ranks 24th in points per game. Given that they will be without Paul George and Reggie Jackson, I expect Denver to coast to an easy win.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

My favorite prop bet of the night is to bet on Nikola Jokic to have a big game across the board. Heading into the game, the Nuggets big man has a points, rebounds, and assists prop of 46. Look for Jokic to surpass this number vs LA.