Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat Odds & Picks 11/29/21

by | Nov 29, 2021 | nba

Denver Nuggets (9-10 SU, 7-12 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (13-7 SU, 13-7 ATS)

When: Monday November 29 2021, 07:30 PM (ET)

Where: FTX Arena: Miami, Florida

TV: Bally Sports Sun

Point Spread: DEN 7.5/MIA -7.5 (Opened at MIA -7.5 at GTBets - Boost your bankroll with a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500!)

Total: 207.5 (Opened at 207.5)

Money Line: Denver +260/Miami -333)

Power Rating: MIA -7.5

Probable Starting Lineups

Nuggets: PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Jeff Green, PF Aaron Gordon, C Nikola Jokic

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry, SG Duncan Robinson, SF Jimmy Butler, P.J. Tucker, C Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Nuggets
Vlatko Cancar: hip (OUT) PJ Dozier: knee (OUT) Nikola Jokic: wrist (QUESTIONABLE) Jamal Murray: knee (OUT) Michael Porter Jr.: back (OUT)

Heat
Jimmy Butler: tailbone (QUESTIONABLE) Marcus Garrett: wrist (QUESTIONABLE) Markieff Morris: neck (OUT) Victor Oladipo: quadricep (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets enter today’s game, having lost six straight games. As of late, the Nuggets have struggled to pick up wins, having won just 4 of their past ten games. As the road team, the Nuggets travel to Miami with a negative plus-minus of rating -8.4 points. Overall, Denver is ranked 19th among NBA teams in point differential (3.7). Among NBA teams, they have played the 8th toughest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they are covering the spread in 36.80% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -0.4.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is C Nikola Jokic. So far, Jokic is averaging 26.36 points per game. This output places him 1st in his position group. Jokic is also the team’s leading rebounder, grabbing 13.57 rebounds per game. Denver’s best three-point shooter has been Will Barton, hitting 2.41 threes per game.

The Miami Heat enter today’s game, having won six of their past ten games. When playing at FTX Arena, the Heat are an above .500 team, having gone 6-1. On the season, they have played the most challenging schedule in the NBA. As they get set to host the Nuggets, Miami has a positive home plus-minus of 12.9 points. Overall the Heat are ranked 4th among NBA teams in point differential (-1.1).

For bettors, taking the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread has been a winning bet as they cover the spread in 65.00% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is 3.5.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is PF Jimmy Butler. So far, Butler is averaging 23.59 points per game. The Heat’s best three-point shooter has been Duncan Robinson, connecting on 3.1 shots from downtown per game. Bam Adebayo has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 10.0 boards per game.

An Eye On Pace

The Denver Nuggets come into this game as the 29th ranked team in possessions per game. Look for this game to be played at a slow tempo as Miami is only slightly ahead of their opponent in pace (27th). This is reflected in the Heat’s shots per game numbers as they are 21st in three-point attempts. On the other side, the Nuggets are 22nd in three-point attempts and 14th in shots inside the arc.

Key Matchups

With both teams playing at similar speeds, they are also alike in where they go for scoring. Denver comes into the contest looking to pound the ball inside as they are the 3rd ranked team in two-point field goal percentage. So far, the team is making 54% of their shots inside the arc. For Miami, they are hitting their interior shots at a rate of 53%. From the outside, they are the 13th ranked team, hitting 34% of their three-point attempts. Both teams are ranked in the top-10 in overall scoring defense.

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The Historicals

This will be the second meeting of the season between the Nuggets and Heat. In the first matchup, Denver beat Miami by the score of 113-96. Going back to the previous season, the Nuggets have won three in a row.

How the Public is Betting the Suns vs. Nets

63% are betting the Heat against the spread.

60% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 208.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

Nuggets are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Nuggets are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following an ATS loss.
Heat are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

In this game, I expect Miami to come away with the home win and for them also to cover the spread. Having missed several games in a row, reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is still listed as questionable with a wrist injury. Without their best player, the team is in the midst of a six-game losing streak. Look for the Heat to pound the ball inside as the Nuggets are struggling with their interior defense.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

If Jokic is unable to play, my favorite prop bet of the night is for Bam Adebayo to go over his rebounding prop. On both ends of the court, the Nuggets rely on Jokic to clean up the glass. Without his opponent’s best player, Adebayo should have no problem grabbing at least 15 rebounds. The best sportsbook to find NBA prop bets at is Bovada. They offer a ton of wagering opportunities, a 50% real cash bonus, rebates on ALL your action; win, lose or draw and pay FAST! Click here to check out why they’re one of the best three sportsbooks on the web!