Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Preview and Pick

Denver Nuggets +1 at Dallas Mavericks -1 O/U 210 9:30 PM ET Monday May 11, 2009 on TNT

Jason Green at

The Nuggets lead this series 3-0.

Tonight the Dallas Mavericks try to stay alive in this series hosting the Denver Nuggets. Antoine Wright obviously fouled Carmelo Anthony in the end of game 3 but the refs did not make a call and Melo drained a 3 pointer to give the Nuggets a 1 point win. NBA president Joel Litvin said there should have been a call, but that is no consolation for the Mavs, who are now down 3-0 in this series, which is a deficit that no team has ever come back from in the NBA playoffs.

Add to the fact that this season the Mavs are now 0-7 against the Nuggets. Even though the Mavs only shot 40% from the floor they also played good D and only allowed the Nuggets to shoot 42% from the floor. Dirk Nowitzki had a big game 3, but Josh Howard needs to step up and help him out on offense, as in game 3 he only had 14 points on 5/15 shooting. One of the main reasons Dallas almost won is that they hit the boards hard and they need to control the glass again tonight and shoot better if they want to take the long road to making history.

Online Sportsbooks have the Mavericks as 1-point favorites with a total of 210. The Mavericks are posted at -115 as minor road favorites and the Nuggets are posted at -105 as road underdogs.

The Nuggets beat the Mavericks on Saturday 106-105. The high scorer for the game was Chauncey Billups going for 32 points on 9/16 shooting including going 11/12 from the charity stripe. For the game the Nuggets shot 34/81 for a FG% of 42%. The high scorer for the Mavericks in game 3 was Dirk Nowitzki going for 33 points on 9/19 shooting. For the game the Mavs shot 30/75 for a FG% of 40%.

This season the Nuggets ranked 6th in scoring (104.3 ppg) and the Mavs ranked 9th (101.7 ppg). On D the Nuggets gave up an average of 100.9 ppg and the Mavs allowed an average of 99.8 ppg. This season the Nuggets had a rebounding differential of +0.4 rpg and the Mavs were at +1.4 rpg.

This season the Nuggets 45-35-2 ATS and the Mavs were 40-42. In terms of Over/Under games this season the Nuggets were 42-39-1 and the Mavs were 38-43-1.

On the injury front neither team is reporting any significant injuries.

The Mavs have to get over the non-call in game 3 and get back to business, as there is no reason to cry and give up even though they should have won game 3.

Jason Terry and Josh Howard have to have good scoring games tonight, as in game 3 they only shot a combined 10/27 from the floor.

The Mavs bench did step up and score 35 points in game 3, led by Jason Terry with 17 points, but they only shot a combined 7/25 from the floor. If the bench can score like that again, but with a better FG% the Mavs have a good chance in this game.

Terry and Jason Kidd did not play good D on Chauncey Billups and tonight they have to keep him from penetrating and getting fouled, as in game 3 he took 12 free throws and made 11 of them. Kidd also has to distribute the ball better, as he only had 5 assists in game 3.

One of the main reasons the Nuggets struggled in game 3 was that C Nene had a poor game only going for 5 points on 2/10 shooting. Even though he grabbed 8 boards he needs to give the Nuggets some offense.

Dallas was solid on the boards in game 3 out-rebounding Denver by 5, but they have to keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass. In game 3 the Nuggets had more offensive rebounds, which led to easy second chance points.

The Mavs also have to hold onto the rock, as they had 10 turnovers in game 3.

Yeah the NBA made a mistake, which cost the Mavs game 3 and maybe the series. Oops.

The Nuggets will be out for blood tonight and looking to end this series early so they can rest up. Look for them to sweet tonight.