Golden State Warriors (19-13) at Dallas Mavericks (20-11), 8:30 pm Eastern Wednesday, NBA
by Zman of Predictem.com
The Dallas Mavericks lost 15 games all of last season, at least until the playoffs. But already this season, the Mavs have lost 11 games. And Wednesday night, Dallas will play host to one of the hottest teams in the league, and one that has given them big problems in recent years, when they take on the Golden State Warriors in Big D.
NBA betting boards list Dallas as a 5 1/2-point home favorite for Wednesday’s game, with a total of 213. Also, the Mavericks are listed at around -245 on the moneylines, with Golden State getting around +190 as road underdogs.
Golden State started out 0-6 this season, but has gone 19-7 since then after
winning at Houston Monday 112-95. And the Warriors have been great lately
at putting the ball in the hole, scoring at least 105 points in eight of
their last 10 games. Heading into Wednesday’s action, GS was still in third
place in the Pacific Division, but just 3 games back of the first-place
Dallas has struggled through the first part of this season, but after beating Atlanta Saturday 97-84, the Mavs sit in second place in the Southwest Division, just two games behind the first-place San Antonio Spurs.
The back story behind this game, of course, is the Warriors’ recent dominance of Dallas, despite being the lesser of the two teams. Two seasons ago, Golden State took three of four games from the Mavericks, and last season the Warriors swept three games from Dallas. Then, in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs, 8th-seeded GS upset the top-seeded Mavs in six games.
But in the first meeting between these two teams this season, Dallas outrebounded the Warriors 49-38 on its way to a 120-115 win back on Nov. 8.
Over the course of 367 days ending with that Mavs win, these two teams played 10 games, with Golden State winning seven of those contests and covering the spread in nine of them. Also, the o/u went 5-5 in those 10 meetings, which averaged 208 total points. But if the o/u had been 213 on each of those 10 games, which is the total for Wednesday’s match-up, the o/u would have gone 3-7.
This season, the Warriors are 16-16 against the spread, and 11-7 straight up and 10-8 ATS on the road. Meanwhile, Dallas is 13-17 vs. the numbers this season, and 14-3 SU and 8-8-1 against the spread at home.
The Mavericks rank 9th in the league this season with a +3.4 average points-per-game margin, while GS ranks 11th at +2.5.
Dallas is shooting 47% from the floor as a team this season, 35% from 3-point range and a league-leading 83% from the free-throw line. On the other side, the Warriors are shooting 45% from the field, 35% from long range but just 74% from the line.
And while the Mavs rank 12th in rebounding at +1.1 per game, GS ranks 29th at -5.1 per game.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com ranks Dallas 8th at 93.8, the Warriors 9th at 93.0.
The o/u is 15-16 in Golden State games this season, which are averaging 215 points per, while the totals are 16-15 in Mavs games, which are averaging 198 points.
Zman’s Pick: The Warriors present some serious match-up problems for the Warriors. We like them to cover and possibly win straight up tonight.