Heat vs. Hawks Game 4 Best Bets

by | Apr 24, 2022 | nba

Miami Heat (55-30 SU, 48-36-1 ATS) vs. Atlanta Hawks (46-41 SU, 40-47-0 ATS)
When: Sunday April 24 2022, 07:00 PM (ET)
Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, Georgia
TV: BSSUN

Point Spread: MIA -2/ATL +2 (Opened MIA -1.5 at BetOnline)
Total: 221 (Opened at 221.5)
Money Line: Miami -131/Atlanta 109
Power Rating: MIA -3

Probable Starting Lineups

Miami Heat PG Kyle Lowry Q, SG Max Strus, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker Q, C Bam Adebayo Q

Atlanta Hawks PG Trae Young, SG Kevin Huerter, SF De’Andre Hunter, PF Danilo Gallinari, C Clint Capela Q

Key Injuries

Miami Heat
Caleb Martin: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE)
P.J. Tucker: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)
Bam Adebayo: Quadricep (QUESTIONABLE)
Kyle Lowry: Hamstring (QUESTIONABLE)

Atlanta Hawks
Lou Williams: Back (OUT)
Clint Capela: Knee (QUESTIONABLE)
Chaundee Brown: Illness (OUT)

The Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat in an Eastern-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 07:00 PM ET at the State Farm Arena.

Recent Form

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 53-29, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 24-18. Over their last five games, the Heat have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Miami’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 113.0 points per game. Combined, the Heat’s last five opponents are giving up 112.0 points per contest. The Heat have been picking up wins while holding opponents to an average of 108.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 105.5. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, the team fell to Atlanta by a score of 111-110.

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game with an overall record of 43-39, placing them 10nd in the Eastern Conference. So far, Atlanta is above .500 at home, holding a record of 29-14. The Hawks have played well over their last five games, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Atlanta’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 109.0 points per game. Combined, the Hawks’ last five opponents are giving up 107.0 points per contest. The Hawks have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 109.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 112.2. In the Atlanta Hawks’ most recent game, Atlanta took down Miami by a score of 111-110.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Miami travels to take on the Atlanta Hawks, the Heat’s leading scorer is Jimmy Butler. Through 58 games, Butler is averaging 21 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 50.0% of his games. As Butler gets set to take on the Hawks, he could be in line for a big game as Atlanta is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 51.43% of their games. This figure places them 20nd among NBA defenses. On the other side, Trae Young leads the Hawks in scoring, averaging 28 points across his 76 games. Throughout the season, Young has outscored his season average in 50.0% of his outings. On the season, the Heat have allowed their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 48.57% of their games, giving them a rank of 12nd among NBA defenses.

Matchup Analysis

The Hawks come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 112.7 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Atlanta is winning at a rate of 68%. These wins are coming by an average margin of 13.0 points. On the other side, the Heat hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 36 games as the better defensive team, picking up 21 wins.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks have met up for 7 games. In their last meeting, Atlanta picked up a 111-110 win.

How the Public is Betting the Heat vs Hawks

67% are betting the Heat against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 221

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Heat are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
  • Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog.
  • Hawks are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Atlanta Hawks come into this game off a thrilling Game 3 win over Miami, keeping their chances alive to pull off the 1/8 series upset. In the matchup, the Hawks outscored the Heat 34-25 in the final quarter to draw the series closer at 2-1. Now, Atlanta has an excellent opportunity to put the pressure back on Miami, as they were hoping to close out the series quickly. A key reason for the Hawks being able to pull off the upset was their improved perimeter defense, as they held the Heat to just 31% shooting from outside. Vegas expects this to be another close game, as Mami is just a 2 point favorite. Look for the Hawks to once again take advantage of playing at home, picking up the win and covering the spread.

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