Heat vs. Magic Odds, Analysis & Prediction

Miami Heat (31-25 SU, 21-33-2 ATS) vs. Orlando Magic (23-33 SU, 32-23-1 ATS)
When: Saturday, February 11th, 7:00 PM (ET)
Where: Amway Center, FL, Orlando
TV: BSF

Point Spread: Mia -1.5/Orl +1.5
Total: 220.5
Money Line: Miami Heat -124/+102

Notable Injuries

Heat

• Kyle Lowry (Out) Knee
• Victor Oladipo (Out) Ankle
• Udonis Haslem (Questionable) Personal
• Duncan Robinson (Out) Finger
• Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle
• Nikola Jovic (Out) Back

Magic

• Gary Harris (Questionable) Adductor

Recent Form

Miami is 31-25 overall heading into the game. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 12-16 and a win percentage of 43%. Currently, the team is 6th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 21-33-2 vs. the spread. In their matchup against Orlando, the Miami Heat have won 2 straight games and will look to push that mark to 3 in a row.

In their last outing, the Heat emerged victorious against the Rockets, winning by a score of 97-95. Tyler Herro led the team in scoring with 31 points. The Miami team was not able to cover the spread as 11-point favorites.

Heading into the game, Orlando is 23-33 overall. When playing at home, Orlando has a mark of 14-14 and a win percentage of 50%. Currently, the team is 13th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 32-23-1 vs. the spread. In Orlando’s last five games, the Magic have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 6-4 and 7-3 ATS.

In their upcoming game, Orlando will be looking to capitalize on their recent win over the Nuggets. Wendell Carter Jr. led the way for the Magic with 19 points. Despite being 5-point underdogs on the spread, the Magic were able to secure an ATS win.

The Historicals

In the most recent game between the two teams, the Heat picked up a 110-105 win over the Magic. However, heading into the game, Miami was favored to win by 9.0 points, giving the Magic and ATS victory. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. In terms of betting vs. the spread, the Magic have gone 3-2, but the Heat actually has a positive scoring differential. In these meetings, Miami has averaged 107 points per contest while allowing 101. Miami and Orlando averaged a combined 208 points per game in these games, leading to an over-under mark of 2-3.

Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 108.4 points per game, which places them 30th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 96.8 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 28th in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 34.9 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

As the Heat prepare for today’s game, Bam Adebayo is their leading scorer with an average of 21.8 points per game. This season, Adebayo has a field goal percentage of 54.7%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Tyler Herro, who is averaging 20.5 points per game.

Coming into the game, Orlando’s offense is ranked just 27th in scoring at 111.2 points per game. This has come while being the 19th-ranked unit in pace. So far, the Magic are averaging 98.7 possessions per contest. Orlando has struggled with their 3-point shot this season, as they are currently ranked just 21st in 3-point shooting percentage at 34.9%. In addition, they are near the bottom of the league in attempts, at just 30.7 attempts per contest. On defense, the Magic are allowing an average of 112.23 points per game, placing them 20th in the league. So far, teams have shot 36.62% on their looks from outside vs. Orlando. This figure places them 27th in 3-point shooting defense.

Going into today’s game, Franz Wagner is the leading scorer for the Orlando team, with an average of 19.3 points per game. This season, his field goal percentage is 48.6%. The team’s second top scorer is Paolo Banchero, who is averaging 20.0 points per game.

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Betting Trends

• The Heat are 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 games following a straight-up win.
• The Heat are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a losing straight-up record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

Wrong team favored! There’s no reason the Magic should be underdogs after playing good basketball in three of their last four games