Heat vs. Spurs Point Spread Pick

by | Dec 17, 2022 | nba

Miami Heat (15-15 SU, 10-19-1 ATS) vs. San Antonio Spurs (9-19 SU, 12-16-0 ATS)
When: Saturday, December 17th, 5:00 PM (ET)
Where: Mexico City Arena, , Mexico City
TV: NBA

Point Spread: MIA -7.5/ SA +7.5
Total: nan
Money Line: Miami Heat -317/ +250

Notable Injuries

Heat

  • Kyle Lowry (Questionable) Knee
  • Jimmy Butler (Probable) Injury Management
  • Dewayne Dedmon (Questionable) Foot
  • Victor Oladipo (Probable) Knee
  • Udonis Haslem (Questionable) Achilles
  • Bam Adebayo (Questionable) Knee
  • Duncan Robinson (Probable) Ankle
  • Haywood Highsmith (Questionable) Quadriceps
  • Gabe Vincent (Out) Knee
  • Tyler Herro (Probable) Ankle
  • Max Strus (Probable) Shoulder
  • Caleb Martin (Questionable) Ankle
  • Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle
  • Nikola Jovic (Probable) Back
  • Orlando Robinson (Probable) Back

Spurs

  • Josh Richardson (Out) Personal
  • Jakob Poeltl (Probable) Knee
  • Zach Collins (Probable) Ankle
  • Romeo Langford (Questionable) Ankle
  • Blake Wesley (Out) Knee

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Miami is 15-15 overall. When taking to the road, Miami has a mark of 6-9 and a win percentage of 40%. Currently, the team is 7th in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 10-19-1 vs. the spread. In their matchup against San Antonio, the Miami Heat have won 3 straight games and will look to push that mark to 4 in a row.

The Heat came away with a win in their last matchup against the Rockets, achieving a 111-108 victory as 2-point favorites. Tyler Herro led the Heat with an impressive performance, scoring 41 points on a shooting percentage of 65.0%. In addition to the win, the Heat also covered the spread.

Heading into the game, San Antonio is 9-19 overall. When playing at home, San Antonio has a mark of 5-11 and a win percentage of 31%. Currently, the team is 14th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 12-16-0 vs. the spread. In San Antonio’s last five games, the Spurs have a straight-up record of 3-2 while going 3-2 in those games. Going back to the last 10, they are 3-7 and 3-7 ATS.

Most recently, San Antonio lost to the Trail Blazers by a score of 128-112. Keldon Johnson and his 25 was not enough for the team to pull out a win as 7-point underdogs. The Spurs also finished with an ATS loss in the game.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Spurs picked up the win 115-111 win over the Heat. Heading into the game, San Antonio was the 12.0-point underdogs, giving them an ATS win. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. In terms of betting, Miami has an ATS record of 3-2 in the previous five matchups vs. San Antonio. This mark has come on an average scoring margin of +8 points per game in favor of the Heat. Over the course of these games, they averaged 222 points per game, leading a 3-2 over-under record.

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Analysis

This season, Miami is averaging just 108.0 points per game, which places them 29th in the league. A major reason for these low numbers is the fact that they play at one of the slower paces in the NBA at just 97.7 possessions per game. The Heat have been able to put together a strong offensive attack despite sitting just 21st in 3-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are among the league leaders in attempts at 36.3 attempts per game. Defensively, the Heat have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 105.57 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 34.0%.

Heading into the game, Bam Adebayo is listed as questionable on the injury report. This season, he leads the team with a per-game scoring average of 20.6. Currently, Tyler Herro is 2nd on the team in scoring at 21.2 points per game.

For the season, San Antonio is averaging just 110.2 points per game, which is 26th in the league. This below-average production has come despite being one of the faster-paced teams in the NBA (11th). San Antonio’s 3-point shooting numbers are below the league average, as they have hit just 34.0% of their looks from deep. On average, the team gets up 33.5 3-point shots per game, placing them 15th in the NBA. The defense has been a struggle for San Antonio, as they are currently allowing 113.04 points per game. In terms of their 3-point defense, opposing teams have hit 35.84% of their looks from deep, placing the Spurs 20th in the NBA.

Coming into today’s game, Keldon Johnson is the leading scorer for San Antonio at 21.0 points per game. This season, Johnson has a field goal percentage of 41.1%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Devin Vassell, at 19.9 points per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • The Heat are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win.
  • The Heat are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • The Spurs are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • The Spurs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

As noted in our lead-in, the Heat are winning games but not with any significant margin. This very same Spurs team played them close six games ago as well. I’m betting the Spurs at +7!