Heat vs Warriors Top Bet 10/27/22

by | Oct 27, 2022 | nba

Miami Heat (2-3 SU, 2-3-0 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (2-2 SU, 1-3-0 ATS)

When: Thursday, October 27th, 10:00 PM (ET)

Where: Chase Center, CA, San Francisco

TV: NBATV

Point Spread: MIA +7/GS -7

Total: 226.0

Money Line: Miami Heat +232/ -286

Notable Injuries

Heat

  • Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
  • Ömer Yurtseven (Out) Ankle

Warriors

  • Andre Iguodala (Out) Injury Management
  • Donte DiVincenzo (Out) Hamstring

Recent Form

So far, the Heat have put together an overall record of 2-3, while going 2-3-0 vs the spread.
In the team’s past 3 games, their overall mark sits at 2-1. Miami is 1-2 vs the spread in these
matchups.

In their previous game, the Heat took down the Trail Blazers by a score of 119-98. Not only
did they come away with a straight up win, but they also covered the spread as 2 point favorites.
Miami put together a strong second half, as they only held a 5 point lead going into halftime. In
the win, Bam Adebayo led the team in scoring with 18 points on a field goal percentage of
54.5%.

So far, the Warriors have put together an overall record of 2-2, while going 1-3-0 vs the
spread. Over the team’s past 3 games, Golden State has an overall record of 1-2, including going
0-3 against the spread.

Not only did the Warriors drop their last game to the Suns. But they also picked up an ATS
loss, as they fell by a score of 134-105 as 2 point underdogs. Golden State was not able to make
a comeback in this matchup, as they went into the half down by 6. Leading the team in scoring was
Stephen Curry, as he contributed 21 points while hitting 41.2% of his shots.

The Historicals

The Warriors are coming off a season in which they defeated Miami in both of their games,
winning by scores of 115-108 and 104-104. Similar to their season-long average, the Heat averaged
106.0 points per game vs the Warriors. Just like the Heat, the Warriors maintained their usual
level of scoring in head-to-head matchups, averaging 116.5 points per game vs Miami. Through the
last 5 matchups between the teams, Miami has an ATS mark of 3-2. But, looking at the scoring
margin in these games, an average of just 2 points per game separates the teams. In these
contests, they averaged a combined 222 points per game, leading to an over-under mark of 4-1.

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Analysis

The Miami offense will take the floor in today’s game with the league’s 12th ranked offense at
106.6 points per game. Coming into today’s game, the Heat will be looking to improve their
3-point shooting numbers, as they are averaging just 10.8 made 3’s per game. If the Miami offense
is going to turn things around, not only do they need to improve their outside shooting but they
must do a better job protecting the ball. Currently, they are averaging 14.2 turnovers per
game.

Against the Warriors, the Heat will need a stronger defensive effort as they are ranked just
26th in points allowed.

Jimmy Butler could be in line for a big game vs the Warriors as they were one of the worst
units at defending small-forwards in the 2021-2022 regular season.

This season, the Golden State offense is averaging 120.2 points per game. When looking at the
team’s pace of play, the Warriors are currently below the league average in possessions per game,
averaging just 107.1 per contest. This slow style of play has made a difference in their overall
scoring numbers, as Golden State is just 18th in made field goals per game.

Currently, the Warriors defense is ranked 23rd in points allowed. So far, opposing teams are
averaging 113.04 points per game vs the unit.

Stephen Curry could be in line for a big game vs the Heat as they were one of the worst units
at defending point-guards in the 2021-2022 regular season.

More Picks: Get our Memphis at Sacramento betting analysis and predictions 10/27/22

Betting Trends

Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning
% of greater than .600.
Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six Thursday games
Warriors are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss.
Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

These teams matchup very well. I’m betting the Heat plus the points!