Hornets vs. Heat Picks & Predictions

by | Apr 5, 2022 | nba

Charlotte Hornets (40-38 SU, 42-34-2 ATS) vs. Miami Heat (51-28 SU, 44-34-1 ATS)
When: Tuesday April 05 2022, 07:30 PM (ET)
Where: FTX Arena, Miami, Florida
TV: BSSE-CHA

Point Spread: CHA +5.5/MIA -5.5 (Opened MIA -5 at BetNow)
Total: 224.5 (Opened at 224.5)
Money Line: Charlotte Hornets 173/Miami Heat -212
Power Rating: MIA -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball, SG Terry Rozier, SF Miles Bridges, PF PJ Washington, C Mason Plumlee
Miami Heat PG Kyle Lowry Q, SG Max Strus, SF Jimmy Butler Off Inj, PF P.J. Tucker Q, C Bam Adebayo

Key Injuries

Charlotte Hornets James Bouknight: Neck (OUT)

Miami Heat Jimmy Butler: Toe (PROBABLE) Markieff Morris: Hip Flexor (QUESTIONABLE) Kyle Lowry: Undisclosed (QUESTIONABLE) P.J. Tucker: Knee (QUESTIONABLE) Javonte Smart: Personal (QUESTIONABLE) Dewayne Dedmon: Ankle (QUESTIONABLE) Gabe Vincent: Toe (QUESTIONABLE)

The Miami Heat host the Charlotte Hornets in an Eastern-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 07:30 PM ET at the FTX Arena.

Recent Form

The Charlotte Hornets come into this game with an overall record of 40-38, placing them 9th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Charlotte is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 20-19. Over their last five games, the Hornets have played well, picking up 3 wins. In this stretch, Charlotte’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 115.0 points per game. Combined, the Hornets’ last five opponents are giving up 109.0 points per contest. The Hornets have been picking up wins, while holding opponents to an average of 116.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 114.8. In the Charlotte Hornets’ most recent game, the team fell to Philadelphia by a score of 144-114.

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 51-28, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 at home, holding a record of 27-12. The Heat have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Miami is averaging 113.0 points per game, 4.0 points more than their season average of 109.5. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. The Heat have been picking up victories while holding opponents to an average of 105.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 105.2. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, Miami took down Toronto by a score of 114-109.

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Individual Player Analysis

As Charlotte travels to take on the Miami Heat, the Hornets’ leading scorer is Miles Bridges. Through 78 games, Bridges is averaging 20 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 51.0% of his games. As Bridges gets set to take on the Heat, he could be in line for a big game as Miami is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 50.82% of their games. This figure places them 20nd among NBA defenses. On the other side, Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring, averaging 21 points across his 56 games. Throughout the season, Butler has outscored his season average in 50.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Butler will need to do so against a Hornets defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 40.91%. This figure is good for a rank of 3rd in the league.

Matchup Analysis

The Hornets come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 110.2 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Charlotte is winning at a rate of 57%. These victories are coming by an average margin of 14.0 points. On the other side, the Heat hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 35 games as the better defensive team, picking up 27 wins (77%).

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat have met up for 3 games. In their last meeting, Miami picked up a 111-107 win.

How the Public is Betting the Hornets vs Heat

67% are betting the Heat against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 224.5

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Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Hornets are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
  • Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Miami Heat come into this matchup against Charlotte with just 3 games remaining on their schedule. With their 4 game win streak, they have regained control over the Eastern Conference and hold a 2 game lead over the Celtics. On the other side, Charlotte is locked in a battle with the Nets for the 9th slot as each team has an identical 40-38 record. With a spread sitting 5.5 points in favor of the Heat, look for the Hornets to keep this one close, covering the spread in Miami.