RBD breaks down Houston vs Los Angeles with sharp betting insights, model conflicts, and a key Game 2 trend driving this pick.
<2>Battling the Books!
Houston at Los Angeles – Game Two Prediction
Written Monday morning:
“Top Gun rules of engagement exist for your safety and for that of your team. They are not flexible, nor am I. Either obey them, or you’re history.”
Mike “Viper” Metcalf
“The rules of sports betting exist for the safety of you and your bankroll. Either obey them or lose your money.”
Me
I did it again on Saturday.
And I got away with it again.
NOT a good habit to get into.
(Not to mention not sending a good example for the newbies.)
The Rules
1 – Either a game meets the parameters to qualify as a play or it doesn’t.
Close doesn’t count.
2 – The winning percentage of one of my handicapping models has to be 58% or higher for me to make a bet.
In their first playoff game, the Knicks missed qualifying for a WF1 play by one point.
And the play’s record was only at 57%.
I took the Knicks anyway and laid the 5′ points.
They won by 11.
I watched the entire game, rare for me when it comes to the NBA.
What I learned is that these two teams are evenly matched and though Atlanta is down 0-1 in the series they can easily win It.
It was a close game throughout the first three quarters and then the Knicks turned it into a blowout in Q4, pulling ahead by 19 points.
And then they promptly blew it.
In crunch time Atlanta went on an 11-0 run, and New York was suddenly in position to blow the spread.
This showed me that Atlanta has heart.
New york, not so much.
The Hawks won’t quit.
Which means they can win this series.
Monday Angle That Matters
I wrote the above as part of my write-up for a play on the Over on the Knicks Monday night game.
Before submitting the article I checked a stat that took me off the play. It was based on round two Monday night games.
I posted the stat in the PredictEm forum section yesterday.
I don’t chart everyday of the week but I do pay attention to NBA /WNBA Mondays and Sunday mornings.
Going into last night, NBA playoff game two’s on Mondays had a four year record of 1-7 on the Over.
It was enough to take me off my Atlanta/NY Over.
The game stayed Under.
So did the Cleveland game.
The Denver game gets charted as an Over by one point, but you could have had a winner on the Under or a push depending on when you bought the line.
That makes this Monday game two 2 stat 9-2 on Unders.
WRITE IT DOWN!
Knicks Reality Check
I also broke another rule by laying higher than standard odds, putting down -260 on New York to win the series.
And after watching last night, my game one review and analysis was correct – New York should not be a more than two to one favorite over what looks to be a better Atlanta team.
Last night the Knicks entered the fourth quarter up by 12 points and did the same thing they did in game one – they blew it.
They managed just NINE points, in TEN minutes of play.
AT HOME.
IN THE FOURTH QUARTER!!!
Nine points. Ten minutes.
Pit-i-ful.
A truly gutless and heartless performance.
After watching them get badly outplayed in two Q4’s I’m looking to hedge off my series bet on them today, before they’re behind one game to two after game three in Atlanta and I won’t be able to get decent odds.
Playoff Trends & Model Check
Before I get to today’s pick let’s look at some numbers from the opening round of the playoffs.
Favs have a solid lead over Dogs at 7-4.
Even more substantial, the Under has provided backers a solid profit as Overs are just 2-9.
Double digit Favs are 3-0 (and there are two of them today.)
As for my own handicapping models:
T1 is 4-5; 2-5 Over, 2-0 Under.
T2 is 3-13, all plays Over, no Unders qualified.
When I have a match, when a game qualifies for both models, the Over is 0-2.
And that’s what I have today.
Houston vs Los Angeles Breakdown
Both T1 and T2 say the Rockets and Lakers go Over the total tonight.
I’m late to the party and hate jumping on an already established trend but I can’t ignore my numbers for both models, a combined 5-16, and 0-2 when I get a match.
This game opened at 205 and despite all the Unders that have been coming thus far in the playoffs it’s climbing, up to as high as 208 now at one of our sponsors.
Game one of the series had a total of 209 and landed on 205.
The three contests during the regular season were 1-2 Ov/Un, with scores of 215, 192, and an anomaly at 240.
The Play
Houston/LAL Un (waiting to buy this one as the line is going higher.)
Recap
Recap: 1-0
Postseason record: 2-1
Regular season record: 33-25
Review: Got a win in my last play using NY -5, and feel fortunate to have done so after watching the slackers stink up the joint last night.
