Indiana Pacers (6-8 6-8 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (5-10 8-7 ATS) ORACLE Arena, Oakland, CA 10:30 PM EST Monday November 30, 2009 on NBA TV
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Pacers +1.5 / Warriors -1.5
Over/Under: 227
Tonight in the Bay Area the Golden State Warriors host the Indiana Pacers. The Warriors are struggling losing 2 in a row and are in last place in the Pacific Division and on top of it all they may be shopping their best player. The Pacers are in the playoff hunt, as they are in 3rd place in the Central Division trailing the Cleveland Cavaliers by 4.5 games.
This season the Warriors are 3-3 at home and the Pacers are 2-3 on the road.
Both teams are coming off blowouts losses, but even though the Pacers have lost 5 of their last 6 games they are getting healthy and getting key players back. The Warriors suffered their worst defeat in years in their last game and in tonight’s game they will be without head coach Don Nelson, who has pneumonia. While the Warriors are having no problems scoring they have one of the worst defenses in the league.
In their last game the Pacers lost to the Dallas Mavericks 113-92 on Friday night. The high scorer for the Pacers in that game was Danny Granger who went for 20 points but only shot 5/16 from the field. For the game the Pacers shot 33/76 for a FG% of 43.4%. On defense the Pacers allowed the Mavs to shoot 41/92 from the floor for a FG% of 44.6%.
The Warriors were absolutely crushed by the L.A. Lakers 130-97 on Saturday. The high scorer for the Warriors in that game was Monta Ellis going for 18 points on 9/18 shooting. For the game the Warriors were cold only shooting 36/92 for a FG% of 39.1%. On D the Warriors took the night off, as they allowed the Lakers to shoot 51/94 from the floor for a FG% of 54.3%.
This season the Warriors rank 3rd in scoring (108.5 ppg) while the Pacers only rank 19th (98.3 ppg). On defense the Pacers also rank 19th in points allowed (100.8 ppg) while the Warriors rank dead last giving up an average of 112.7 ppg. Neither team is good on the glass, to say the least, as the Pacers have a rebounding differential of -3.4 rpg while the Warriors have the 2nd worst rebounding differential in the league (-6.5 rpg).
The Warriors are in the basement of their division, have a sick coach, and may have Monta Ellis (23.1 ppg) on the trading block. Things are not well in the City By the Bay this season and on top of everything they have the worst defense in the league.
The Warriors lack inside presence, which is one of the reasons that they are so easy to score on. PF Mikki Moore (4.4 ppg 3.1 rpg) and Andris Biedrins (6 ppg 7.3 rpg) have the height, but lack muscle and they have to keep the Pacers off the boards tonight and play solid inside defense. That will not be easy on the forwards of Troy Murphy (10.5 ppg 8.5 rpg) and Danny Granger (24.8 ppg).
Troy Murphy (8.5 rpg) is a legit guy on the glass and if he dominates the glass on the offensive end of the court the Warriors will be in trouble.
SF Mike Dunleavy (13 ppg) has missed most of the beginning of the season with a knee injury, but he will play in this game. If he is hitting his outside J it will open up the lane for Granger and Murphy.
The Warriors are a high-scoring team that likes to run and hit the long ball. If the Pacers can slow the tempo of the game down and play solid perimeter defense they should be in good shape.
SF Corey Maggette (16.4 ppg) has to give the Warriors some inside scoring so the Pacers do not stack the perimeter to keep them from open looks from deep.
Monta Ellis and rookie Stephen Curry (10.4 ppg) have to
shoot the rock well tonight.
On the injury front SF Danny Granger, PF Tyler Hansbrough, and SF Mike Dunleavy are all day-to-day for the Packers while C Ronny Turiaf and SF Devean George are day-to-day for the Warriors.
Jason’s Pick: The Warriors always have trouble with teams that can score inside, which the Pacers can do. Look for the Pacers to score at will inside and play decent defense, as they will win this game and move within 1 game of .500 sending the Warriors to their 3rd straight loss. Take the Pacers and the points in this game.
