New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Saturday, November 7, 2026
8:00 PM ET, Rocket Arena
The Knicks are 4.5-point favorites on the road against the Cavaliers at most books, with the total at 224.5. My play is Knicks −4.5.
A road favorite in Cleveland usually makes me nervous. A road favorite in Cleveland when Jarrett Allen is in street clothes and the Cavs played last night? That one I’ll take.
Allen’s absence is the whole card. Cleveland beat Philadelphia 119-95 on Friday without him, which is nice, and also means the Cavaliers are on a back-to-back tonight at Rocket Arena. Allen’s knee kept him out; Sam Merrill (elbow) and Jaylon Tyson (ankle) are out too. Evan Mobley can swallow minutes and Peyton Watson brings length, but losing your starting center changes how you protect the rim and finish at it. Donovan Mitchell and James Harden still run the show. They don’t replace Allen’s gravity.
New York is 4-4 with a net rating that says it’s better than .500 — about +5 per 100 possessions, good for top-10 early. Jalen Brunson dropped 33 in Wednesday’s 135-105 demolition of Chicago, Karl-Anthony Towns stuffed the glass, and OG Anunoby / Mikal Bridges keep the wings honest. Josh Hart is out with an ankle, which costs the Knicks their Swiss Army knife, not their shot creation. The market opened Cleveland getting 3.5 and has already drifted to 4.5. That’s the number telling on itself.
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The Cavaliers are 4-1 at home, and that matters. Mitchell can go nuclear on any night, Harden stretches possessions, and a packed Rocket Arena has buried fresher teams than this Knicks group. New York is also 2-6 against the spread, a brutal early mark for a team that keeps getting laid as a favorite and failing to cash. If this turns into a half-court slog — and the Knicks play at one of the slowest paces in the league — a late Cleveland three can turn −4.5 into a sweat.
The case against me is basically that home record and the ATS ghost following New York around. Fair. I’d rather bet the healthier, better-rested, higher-rated roster than fade it because the dog is loud at home.
These clubs know each other from a one-sided playoff series last spring. The version of Cleveland that shows up without Allen on night two is the one I want to bet against.
Projected score: Knicks 116, Cavaliers 108
The Pick: Knicks −4.5
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