Lakers vs. Trail Blazers Pick Against the Spread 11/6/21

by | Nov 6, 2021 | nba

Los Angeles Lakers (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS)vs. Portland Trail Blazers (4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS)
When: Saturday November 06 2021, 10:30 PM (ET)
Where: Moda Center: Portland, Oregon
TV: Spectrum SportsNet

Point Spread: LAL 4.5/POR -4.5 Opened at (Blazers -5 )
Total: 219.5 (Opened at 219.5 )
Money Line: (Los Angeles +148)/(Portland -180)
Power Rating: Blazers -3
Best in-game betting >>> Bovada

Probable Starting Lineups

Lakers: PG Russell Westbrook, SG Avery Bradley, SF Kent Bazemore, PF Anthony Davis, C Deandre Jordan
Trail Blazers: PG Damian Lillard, SG CJ McCollum, SF Norman Powell, PF Robert Covington, C Jusuf Nurkic

Key Injuries

Lakers Trevor Ariza: ankle (QUESTIONABLE) Wayne Ellington: hamstring (OUT) Talen Horton-Tucker: thumb (OUT) LeBron James: abdominal (QUESTIONABLE) Kendrick Nunn: ankle (OUT)

Blazers No Reported Injuries

Recent Form

The Los Angeles Lakers enter today’s game, winning five of their past nine games. When playing away from home, the Lakers have won exactly half of their games, going 1-1.

As the road team, the Lakers travel to Portland with a negative plus-minus of rating -2.0 points. Overall the Lakers are ranked 15th among NBA teams in point differential (2.1).

Among NBA teams, they have played the 29th toughest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Los Angeles Lakers to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they are covering the spread in 22.20%% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -5.7.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is PF Anthony Davis. So far, Davis is averaging 25.44 points per game. Davis has also been in charge of cleaning up the glass, hauling in 11.89 boards per game.

The Lakers’ best three-point shooter has been Carmelo Anthony, connecting on 3.56 shots from downtown per game.

The Portland Blazers enter today’s game, having won four of their past nine games. When playing at Moda Center, the Trail TraBlazers are an above .500 team, having gone 4-1. This has come while playing the 15th toughest schedule.

As they get set to host the Lakers, Portland has a positive home plus-minus of 13.8 points. Overall the Blazers are ranked 13th among NBA teams in point differential (1.6).

For bettors, taking the Portland Blazers to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they are covering the spread in 33.30% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -1.6.

Offensively, the team’s leading scorer is SG CJ McCollum. So far, McCollum is averaging 23.38 points per game. CJ McCollum has been the Blazers’ best three-point shooter, connecting on 4.12 shots from downtown per game. Jusuf Nurkic has been in charge of cleaning up the glass, pulling down 11.62 boards per game.

Opportunity Analysis

A key matchup to watch is how the tempo of this game plays out. Both units are among a group of teams playing at an average league pace. Historically, this plays out better for the Trail Blazers, who in 66% of these contests. Under the same circumstances, the Lakers win 52% of the time.

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Defensive Impact

In tonight’s game, the Lakers will have the more challenging defensive task. In terms of offensive efficiency, the Trail Blazers are a top 10 NBA team. When LA faces off against similar units, they hold them to 2 points below the league expectation. However, this only translates to wins 37% of the time.

Portland’s defense will be taking on a Lakers unit ranked in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency. In these situations, struggling offenses have had an easier time scoring than expected. On average, they outscore the league average by 5 points per possession. Still, the Blazers win these games at a 72% rate.

Offensive Impact

In this game, I see Portland putting up a lot of points. Despite the Lakers being a top 10 team in defensive efficiency, the Blazers score 7 points more than the league’s expected output.

Theoretically, the Lakers should have an easier time scoring against a struggling Portland defense. However, this LA group fails to take advantage of such opportunities, scoring two fewer points per possession than the league average.

The Historicals

Last season, the Bucks and Knicks met up for three games, with Portland winning the series 2-1. Combined, the Blazers outscored Los Angeles 314-310. Despite the overall scoring being very close, all three of these games were won by significant margins.

How the Public is Betting the Lakers vs. Blazers

60% are betting the Lakers against the spread.
56% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 219.5.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Lakers are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games overall.
  • Trail Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
  • Lakers are 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings.
  • The Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
  • Lakers are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Portland.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

In tonight’s game, I am expecting the Blazers to pull out a win in a tightly contested contest. I recommend taking Portland to cover the spread at -5. But, if the line moves strongly in LA’s favor, I would switch to the Blazers on the money line.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

As of writing this article, there are no prop bets available on players. However, I will be targeting Damian Lillard to surpass his point total.