Los Angeles Lakers (48-22) -1, 234 at Golden State Warriors (43-26), 10:30 pm Eastern Monday
by Zman of Predictem.com
The story of the wild West continues to unfold when the Los Angeles Lakers visit Oakland to take on the Golden State Warriors in the back half of a home-and-homer Monday night.
NBA betting boards list LA as a one-point road favorite for Monday’s game, with a total of 234. Few outlets have posted moneylines on this game because of the short spread.
Los Angeles had beaten Golden State nine straight times, including four games last season and the first meeting between these two teams this season. But the Warriors beat the Lakers 108-106 back in December, and held on for a 115-111 win at Staples Center Sunday night. GS led 72-49 at the half Sunday, then allowed LA to come back and grab a 99-97 lead with about five minutes to go. But a couple of big three-pointers by Stephen Jackson in the last minute countered a couple of bombs by Kobe Bryant, and the Warriors prevailed. The game also managed to stay under its total of 233.
The win was the 10th in the last 14 games for Golden State. So heading into this week’s action, the Warriors are in third place in the Pacific Division, 4 games behind the Lakers. And GS owns the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot, a half-game back of seventh-place Dallas but just 1 games ahead of ninth-place Denver.
Meanwhile, LA, which had won three in a row before Sunday, leads the Pacific by just a half-game over second-place Phoenix, and is tied with New Orleans for the best record in the West.
As mentioned above, Golden State is 2-1 vs. the Lakers this season. Both teams have shot a collective 45% from the field in the three games, and LA has outrebounded the Warriors by a 151-133 margin.
Over the course of the last seven games in the series between these in-state rivals, the o/u has gone 3-4, as the games have averaged 216 total points.
This season, LA is 42-27 against the spread, and 24-13 straight up and 24-12-1 vs. the numbers on the road. Meanwhile, Golden State is just 30-39 against the spread this season, and while 23-11 straight up only 12-22 vs. the numbers at home.
Statistically speaking, Los Angeles ranks 3rd in the league in point differential at +7.1 per game, the Warriors 13th at +2.9.
LA is shooting 48% from the field as a team this season, 38% from 3-point range and 76% from the free-throw line. At the other end, GS is shooting 46% from the floor, 35% from long range and 75% from the line.
Also, while the Lakers rank 5th in the league in FG defense at 44% and 7th in rebounding at +1.2 per game, the Warriors ranks 22nd in FG defense at 46.5% and dead last in rebounding at -4.5 per game.
On the injury front, LA was already playing without center Andrew Bynum when fellow big man Pau Gasol went down five games ago with a sprained ankle. Both are out Monday.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank the Lakers 2nd at 97.2, Golden State 12th at 92.3. Sagarin’s current NBA home-court advantage figure is 3.5.
The o/u is 33-36 in Los Angeles games this season, which are averaging 209 total points, while the totals are 37-30 in Warriors games, which are averaging 219 points.
Zman’s Pick: Take Golden State plus the points!