Mavericks vs. Celtics Betting Preview & Pick ATS

by | Jan 5, 2023 | nba

Boston Celtics (26-12 SU, 20-17-1 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (22-16 SU, 13-23-2 ATS)
When: Thursday, January 5th, 7:30 PM (ET)
Where: American Airlines Center, TX, Dallas
TV: TNT

Point Spread: BOS -2.0/ DAL +2
Total: 230.0
Money Line: Boston Celtics -132/ +108

Notable Injuries

Celtics

  • Danilo Gallinari (Out) Knee

Mavericks

  • Dorian Finney-Smith (Out) Adductor
  • Maxi Kleber (Out) Hamstring
  • Josh Green (Out) Elbow

Recent Form

Heading into the game, Boston is 26-12 overall. When taking to the road, Boston has a mark of 11-7 and a win percentage of 61%. Currently, the team is 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, they are 20-17-1 vs. the spread. Boston travels to take on the Mavericks, hoping to avoid their 3rd straight loss.

Boston most recently lost to the Thunder by a score of 150-117. The team high 29 points from Jaylen Brown was not enough to come away with the win. The Celtics were 11-point favorites going into the game.

Heading into the game, Dallas is 22-16 overall. When playing at home, Dallas has a mark of 15-5 and a win percentage of 75%. Currently, the team is 4th in the Western Conference. So far, they are 13-23-2 vs. the spread. Dallas will look to stay hot in today’s game vs. Boston as they are the winners of 7 straight games.

In their last outing, the Mavericks emerged victorious against the Rockets, winning by a score of 111-106. Luka Doncic led the team in scoring with 39 points. The Dallas team was not able to cover the spread as 7-point favorites.

The Historicals

In the most recent matchup between the two teams, the Celtics picked up the 125-112 win over the Mavericks. The Celtics’ point margin of victory was enough to cover the spread as 6.0 point favorite. This has been the only matchup between the two teams this season. This has resulted in a 3-2 ATS record for Dallas. In these matchups, the teams have put together an over-under mark of 1-4. Combined, they averaged 214 points in these games.

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Analysis

For the season, Boston has put together one of the top-scoring offenses in the NBA at 118.6 points per game. When looking at their style of play, the team is currently near the league average in pace, averaging 99.9 possessions per contest. Boston’s offensive attack has benefited from some hot shooting from outside. Not only are they among the league leaders in 3-pointers attempted per game, but they are 8th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.2%. Defensively, the Celtics have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.48 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.86%.

As the Celtics prepare for today’s game, Jayson Tatum is their leading scorer with an average of 30.8 points per game. This season, Tatum has a field goal percentage of 47.4%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Jaylen Brown, who is averaging 27.2 points per game.

This season, the Mavericks’ offense averages 112.6 points per game, which is 19th in the NBA. In terms of pace, Dallas has been playing at one of the slower tempo’s in the league, averaging just 96.5 possessions per game. The three-point shot has been a big part of Dallas’ offensive game plan, as they are ranked 3rd in 3-point attempts per game. So far, they have connected on 35.9% of their looks from the outside. Defensively, the Mavericks have been one of the best units in the NBA, allowing just 104.72 points per game. So far, they have done an excellent job defending the 3-point arc, allowing teams to hit just 33.98%.

Coming into today’s game, Luka Doncic is the leading scorer for Dallas at 34.3 points per game. This season, Doncic has a field goal percentage of 50.7%. The team’s second-leading scorer is Christian Wood, at 17.8 points per contest.

More Picks: Get our Utah at Houston betting predictions for 1/5/23

Betting Trends

  • The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
  • The Celtics are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 Thursday games.
  • The Mavericks are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • The Mavericks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Joes Pick To Cover The Spread

The Boston Celtics are 1-4 in their last five road games. I can’t lay points with a team playing that poorly away from home, so I’d suggest betting on the Mavs at +2.5.