Miami at Milwaukee Free NBA Picks 3/2/22

by | Last updated Mar 2, 2022 | nba

Miami Heat (41-21 SU, 35-26-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (37-25 SU, 27-35-0 ATS)

When: Wednesday March 02 2022, 08:00 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin


Point Spread: MIA +5/MIL -5(Opened MIL -5 at Bovada – Check out their live betting! It’s amazing!)

Total: 222.5 (Opened at 222.5)

Money Line: Miami Heat 170/Milwaukee Bucks -213

Power Rating: MIL -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Miami Heat PG Gabe Vincent, SG Duncan Robinson, SF Jimmy Butler, PF P.J. Tucker, C Bam Adebayo

Milwaukee Bucks PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis

Key Injuries

Kyle Lowry: personal (QUESTIONABLE) Markieff Morris: neck (OUT) Victor Oladipo: knee (OUT)

Pat Connaughton: finger (OUT) George Hill: neck (OUT) Brook Lopez: back (OUT)

The Milwaukee Bucks host the Miami Heat in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 08:00 PM ET at the Fiserv Forum.

Recent Form

The Miami Heat come into this game with an overall record of 41-21, placing them 1st in the Eastern Conference. So far, Miami is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 20-14. Over their last five games, the Heat have played well, picking up 4 wins. During this stretch, Miami is averaging 114.0 points per game, 4.0 points more than their season average of 109.5. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 110.0 points per contest. The Heat have been picking up wins while holding opponents to an average of 108.0 points per game, similar to their season average of 104.7. In the Miami Heat’s most recent game, Miami took down Chicago by a score of 112-99

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game with an overall record of 37-25, placing them 4th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Milwaukee is above .500 at home, holding a record of 21-12. Over the Bucks’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. During this stretch, Milwaukee is averaging 122.0 points per game, 8.0 points more than their season average of 113.6. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 111.0 points per contest. A key reason for the Bucks’ recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 119.0 points over their last five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 110.0. In the Milwaukee Bucks’ most recent game, Milwaukee took down Charlotte by a score of 130-106.

Individual Player Analysis

As Miami travels to take on the Milwaukee Bucks, the Heat’ leading scorer is Jimmy Butler. Through 43 games, Butler is averaging 21 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 49.0% of his games. So far, the Bucks are allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their season average in 48.94% of their games, placing them 15th among NBA defenses. On the other side, Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the Bucks in scoring, averaging 29 points across his 51 games. Throughout the season, Antetokounmpo has outscored his season average in 45.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Antetokounmpo will need to do so against a Heat defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 33.33%. This figure is good for a rank of 3rd in the league.

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Matchup Analysis

The Bucks come into this game as the more efficient offensive team, averaging 110.4 points per 100 possessions. When playing as the superior offensive unit, Milwaukee is winning at a rate of 67%. These wins are coming by an average margin of 15.0 points. On the other side, the Heat hold the advantage on the defensive end of the floor. So far, they have played 28 games as the better defensive team, picking up 17 wins.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks have met up for 3 games. In their last meeting, Miami picked up a 113-104 win.

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How the Public is Betting the Heat vs Bucks

67% are betting the Heat against the spread.

52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 222.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Heat are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Heat are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Bucks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.
  • Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

In a battle between two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference, I recommend taking the Bucks to pick up the win and cover the spread. As the reigning NBA Champs, look for Milwaukee to make a statement vs. a Heat team hoping to hold on to the number seed in the East. Throughout the season, Giannis Antetokounmpo tends to play his best vs quality opponents on his home court. Look for a big game from the Greek Freak as Milwaukee takes down the Heat. Note: March Madness is coming! Instead of re-depositing at your sportsbook and getting NOTHING, consider grabbing a 100% REAL CASH bonus up to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook! It’s the biggest sportsbook bonus on the web offered from a LEGIT bookie!