Miami Heat (23-22 22-23 ATS) vs. Detroit Pistons (15-29 19-24-1 ATS) The Palace of Auburn Hills, Detroit, MI8 PM EST Friday January 29, 2010 on FOX DET
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Heat -2/Pistons +2
Over/Under: 188
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Tonight in an Eastern Conference match up of a couple of struggling teams the Detroit Pistons host the Miami Heat. Things have not gone well for the Pistons to say the least, as they are 14 games under .500 and the playoffs seem like a long shot.
This season the Pistons are 11-12 at home and the Heat are 10-11 on the road.
Detroit has lost 3 games in a row, is 4-6 in their last 10 games, and is in last place in the Central Division 19.5 games back of the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Heat are not playing with a lot of fire lately, as they have dropped 2 games in a row, are 5-5 in their last 10, and trail Orlando and Atlanta is the Southeast Division by 6 games.
The Heat really need to start winning if they want to host a first round playoff series. That may be harder tonight, as they may be without Michael Beasley (16 ppg 6.7 rpg), who is a game time decision after hyper-extending his knee in the last game. Beasley ranks 2nd on the Heat in scoring and 3rd in rebounding and without him the Heat may be behind the 8-ball in this game, as it will allow the Pistons to move up and take away the 3-point bomb.
Superstar and All Star starter Dwayne Wade has played great against Detroit in his last 4 games averaging 31.5 ppg on 57.5% shooting. He may have to shoulder more of the offensive load if Beasley can’t go tonight.
Detroit has been hit by the injury bug hard this season, which is one of the reasons they are 7 games out of the 8th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Ben Gordon (17.7 ppg) is Out with an injured hamstring, which will be the 9th game in a row he has missed.
The Pistons’ offense has really struggled, as they have averaged have averaged 90.6 ppg and shot 42% while losing 17 of their last 21 games.
In their last game the Heat lost to the Toronto Raptors 111-103 on Wednesday night. Dwayne Wade had a huge game and was the high scorer for the Heat going for 35 points on 13/25 shooting. For the game the Heat shot 40-90 from the field for a FG% of 44.4%. The Heat left their defense back in South Florida, as they allowed the Raptors to shoot 46/81 for a FG% of 56.8%.
The Pistons lost to the Memphis Grizzlies 99-93 also on Wednesday night. The high scorer for the Pistons in the game was Rodney Stuckey going for 17 points, but he was only 7/20 from the field. For the game the Pistons shot 40/85 for a FG% of 47.1%. On D the Pistons played decent allowing the Grizzlies to shoot 34/77 for a FG% of 44.2%.
This season neither team is lighting up the scoreboard, as the Heat rank 23rd (97.6 ppg) and the Pistons rank 2nd to last (29th) only averaging 92.2 ppg. On D both teams are tied ranking 9th in points allowed (97.1 ppg). The Pistons have been better on the glass this season, as they have a rebounding differential of +2.5 rpg while the Heat are at +0.1 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Heat rank 16th (90.74) and the Pistons rank 25th (85.74).
Detroit is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games, 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games, and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games against teams with a losing road record.
Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams in the Central Division and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Detroit has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 games and an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 home games.
Miami is has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 games, have an Over record of 10-2 in their last 12 road games against teams with a losing home record, and have an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 road games.
Miami is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Detroit and in the last 4 meetings between these 2 teams the total has gone Over every time.
On the injury front SG Daequan Cook is day-to-day for Miami and PG Chucky Atkins, PG Will Bynum, and SG Ben Gordon are all day-to-day for Detroit.
Jason’s Pick: The outcome of this game has a lot to do if Beasley can play. However, even if he can he may not be 100%. The Pistons are not a bad road team and they will get back to .500 at Auburn Hills with a win tonight.
