Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors Preview and Pick – Point Spread

Miami Heat (23-21 22-22 ATS) vs. Toronto Raptors (23-22 22-23 ATS) Air Canada Centre, Toronto, Ontario Canada 7 PM EST Wednesday January 27, 2010 on FSOH
by Jason Green at

Point Spread: Heat +3.5 / Raptors -3.5
Over/Under: 204

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Tonight north of the border the Toronto Raptors host the Miami Heat. The Raptors are playing well as of late winning 2 in a row and going 6-4 in their last 10 games. The Heat are coming off a loss and are 5-5 in their last 10 games. Toronto is in 2nd place in the Atlantic Division 7.5 games back of the Boston Celtics and Miami is in 3rd place in the Southeast Division 6.5 games back of the Atlanta Hawks.

This season the Raptors are 15-6 at home and the Heat are 10-10 on the road.

If the season were to end today Miami would be in the 5th position in the Eastern Conference and Toronto would be 6th.

The Raptors have won 9 of their last 10 home games including beating the defending champion Lakers in their last game.

The Heat will have to play good D against Chris Bosh, who is averaging just over 30 ppg in his last 3 games against Miami and in the last game against the Lakers he was awesome going for 18 points and 13 boards, which was his 32nd double-double of the season only one behind Orlando’s Dwight Howard for the most in the league.

The Heat will have to play good defense tonight against a Raptors’ squad that ranks 6th in the league in scoring.

Toronto’s Hedo Turkoglu (12.5 ppg) has to snap out of his shooting slump if the Raptors are going to move up in the East. In his last 8 games he is only averaging 8.4 ppg on 26% shooting.

Dwayne Wade (27.1 ppg) and Bosh (23.9 ppg) will get their shots, but the game may depend on these guys’ supporting casts and who can step up tonight.

In their last game the Heat lost a tough game to the Cleveland Cavaliers 92-91 on Monday night. Wade was the high scorer for the Heat in the game going for 32 points on 10/21 shooting, but he missed a shot at the buzzer that would have given Miami the win. For the game the Heat shot 34/78 from the floor for a FG% of 43.6%. On D the Heat allowed the Cavs to shoot 33/73 for a FG% of 45.2%.

The Raptors are coming off a solid 106-105 win over the L.A. Lakers on
Sunday. The high scorer for Toronto in the game was Andrea Bargnani
going for 22 points on 7/17 shooting. For the game the Raptors shot 39/82
for a FG% of 47.6%. On defense the Raptors allowed the Lakers to shoot 45/98
for a FG% of 45.9%.

This season Toronto ranks 6th in scoring (103.6 ppg) while the Heat only rank 24th (97.4 ppg). On defense the tables are turned, as the Heat rank 8th in points allowed (96.8 ppg) while the Raptors rank 26th (104.9 ppg). Both teams are relatively even on the boards, as the Heat have a rebounding differential of +0.3 rpg and the Raptors are at -1.7 rpg.

According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Heat rank 14th (90.90) and the Raptors rank 17th (90.55).

Miami is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss.

Toronto is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against teams in the Southeast Division.

Miami has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 games and has an Under record of 11-5 in their last 16 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.

Toronto has an Over record of 10-4 in their last 14 games and have an Over record of 18-7-1 in their last 26 games against teams in the Eastern Conference.

On the injury front SG Daequan Cook is day-to-day for Miami and PF Reggie Evans is Out for Toronto.

Jason’s Pick: The Raptors are playing well and they are playing with a ton of confidence, especially after beating the Lakers on Sunday. Dwayne Wade will have a good scoring game, but the Heat are an enigman on the road. The Raptors have too many scoring options for the Heat to deal with as well. Toronto will win this game and cover the spread.