Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks Predictions 1/17/22

by | Jan 17, 2022 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (27-18 SU, 20-25-0 ATS) vs. Atlanta Hawks (17-25 SU, 15-27-0 ATS)
When: Monday January 17 2022, 06:00 PM (ET)
Where: State Farm Arena: Atlanta, Georgia
TV: TNT

Point Spread: MIL -4.0/ATL 4.0 (Opened at MIL -3.5 at MyBookie)
Total: 230.0 (Opened at 230.5)
Money Line: Milwaukee -210/Atlanta 175)
Power Rating: MIL -5.5

Probable Starting Lineups

Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis
Hawks: PG Trae Young, SG Timothy Luwawu-Cabarrot, SF Kevin Heurter, PF John Collins, C Onyeka Okongwu

Key Injuries

Bucks Langston Galloway: illness (OUT) Jrue Holiday: ankle (QUESTIONABLE) Brook Lopez: back (OUT)

Hawks Bogdan Bogdanovic: knee (QUESTIONABLE) Clint Capela: ankle (QUESTIONABLE)

Recent Form

The Milwaukee Bucks enter today’s game, having won 5 of their past ten games. When playing away from home, the Bucks are an above .500 team, having gone 13-10. As the road team, Milwaukee travels to Atlanta with a positive plus-minus of rating of 2.4 points. Overall, the Bucks are ranked 6th among NBA teams in point differential (5.7). Among NBA teams, they have played the 22nd toughest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Milwaukee Bucks to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they have covered 44.40% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -0.8.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is SF Giannis Antetokounmpo. So far, Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.5 points per game while grabbing 10.7 rebounds per contest. Behind him is Khris Middleton averaging just short of 20 points per contest while knocking down 38% of his three-point attempts.

The Atlanta Hawks enter today’s game, having lost five straight games. This streak is part of a larger trend of winning just twice over their last 10. As they get set to host the Bucks, Atlanta has a positive home plus-minus of 0.4 points. Overall the Hawks are ranked 21st among NBA teams in point differential (1.6). So far, they have played the 9th hardest schedule.

For bettors, taking the Atlanta Hawks to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they have covered just 35.70% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -3.2.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is PG Trae Young. So far, Young is averaging 27.61 points per game while hitting 37% of his three-point shots. Young also serves as Atlanta’s top distributor with 9.3 assists game.

An Eye On Pace

Heading into this contest, the Milwaukee Bucks have taken the 4th most three-point shots in the NBA. On average, Milwaukee takes just under 40 shots per game from outside. On the other side, the Hawks are the 24th rated team in three-point attempts. However, when taking into account their two-point field goal attempts, Atlanta moves up to 13th in shots per contest.

Key Matchups

In this matchup, the Milwaukee Bucks have the most significant advantage on the defensive end of the court. So far, Milwaukee is the 4th rated team in opponent shooting percentage while Atlanta is allowing opponents to hit 47% of their shots, placing them 28th in the NBA. Given that Milwaukee specializes in taking a lot of looks from outside look for the Bucks to have a big game on offense.

The Historicals

Tonight’s game between the Bucks and Hawks will be their second meeting of the season, with Atlanta taking game one by a score of 120-100.

How the Public is betting the Warriors vs. Bucks

60% are betting the Bucks against the spread.
55% are wagering on the game to go Over the posted total of 230.5

More Picks: Indiana at Nebraska Betting Analysis & Predictions >>>

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
  • Hawks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog.
  • Hawks are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game as the 4th seed in the Eastern Conference. However, they sit just two games behind the Bulls for the top spot. On the other side, Atlanta needs to string together some wins if they hope to get back into the playoff race as they are the current 12 seed in the East. Look for the Bucks to hand the Hawks their 6th straight loss as Milwaukee will be close to full strength with Jrue Holiday returning to the lineup. His defense will be important as Trae Young will be looking to do whatever he can to break his team out of a slump.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

My favorite prop bet of the night is to take Khris Middleton to surpass his betting line of 21.5 points. Even though Middleton has gone over this line in just 36% of his games, he has a history of torching the Hawks. In addition, Atlanta is the league’s 3rd worst team in opponent shooting percentage.