Milwaukee Bucks vs. Denver Nuggets Predictions 11/26/21

by | Nov 26, 2021 | nba

Milwaukee Bucks (11-8 SU, 8-11-0 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (9-9 SU, 7-11 ATS)

When: Friday November 26 2021, 09:00 PM (ET)

Where: Ball Arena: Denver, Colorado

TV: Bally Sports North

Point Spread: MIL -3.5/DEN 3.5 (Opened at MIL -2.5 at Bovada - Check out their AWESOME live betting platform! It’s the bomb!)

Total: 213.5 (Opened at 213.5)

Money Line: Milwaukee -162/Denver +136)

Power Rating: Bucks -4

Probable Starting Lineups

Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis

Nuggets: PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic

Key Injuries

Donte DiVincenzo: foot (OUT) Semi Ojeleye: calf (QUESTIONABLE)

Vlatko Cancar: hip (OUT) PJ Dozier: knee (OUT) Nikola Jokic: wrist (QUESTIONABLE) Jamal Murray: knee (OUT) Michael Porter Jr.: back (OUT)

The Milwaukee Bucks enter today’s game, having won 5 straight games. In their past ten contests, the Bucks have played above .500 basketball, going 7-3. So far, the team has played the 24th toughest schedule in the league.

As the road team, Milwaukee travels to Denver with a negative plus-minus of rating -1.0 points. Overall the Bucks are ranked 9th among NBA teams in point differential (5.7).

For bettors, taking the Milwaukee Bucks to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they have covered in 42.10% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -1.8.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is SF Giannis Antetokounmpo. So far, Antetokounmpo is averaging 27.22 points per game. This output places him 2nd in his position group. Antetokounmpo is also Milwaukee’s top rebounder at 11.67 boards per game. The Bucks’ best three-point shooter has been Grayson Allen, connecting on 3.32 shots from downtown per game.

The Denver Nuggets enter today’s game, having lost five straight games. Even though the Nuggets are on a losing streak, their strong play leading up to this streak has kept them at .500 over their past ten games. On the season, they have played the 8th toughest schedule.

As they get set to host the Bucks, Denver has a positive home plus-minus of 6.4 points. Overall the Nuggets are ranked 18th among NBA teams in point differential (3.7).

For bettors, taking the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread has been a losing bet as they are covering the spread in 38.90% of their games.
Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -0.1.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is C Nikola Jokic. So far, Jokic is averaging 26.36 points per game. Jokic has also managed to help the team in the rebounding department, pulling down 13.57 rebounds per game. The Nuggets’ best three-point shooter has been Will Barton, connecting on 2.44 shots from downtown per game.

An Eye On Pace

Coming into this game, the Bucks are on the NBA’s fastest-paced teams. With their increased number of possessions, they are averaging nearly five three-point shots per game above the league average. For the year, they are converting these shots at a rate of 37%. Milwaukee’s style of play will clash with how Denver wants to play, as they are one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA.

Key Matchup

For Denver, it will be important that they continue their strong defensive play in defending the three-point line. So far, opponents are shooting just 33% against the unit. However, this has come at the expense of their interior defense as they are the 26th ranked team at defending the two-point shot. Look for Giannis Antetokoumpo to be in full attack mode in this game.

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The Historicals

Last season, these two teams met up for two games, with Denver taking the first game by a score of 128-97. Milwaukee got its revenge in game two, winning the game 125-112. Both teams won on each other’s home court.

How the Public is Betting the Raptors vs. Warriors

58% are betting the Bucks against the spread.

60% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 213.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road favorite.
The Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Nuggets are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

Joe’s Pick To Cover The Spread

Heading into this game, the Bucks and the Nuggets are trending in the opposite direction. After a slow start to their season, Milwaukee has rattled off five straight wins. The main reason for this is the team is finally getting back to full strength. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton have missed significant time due to injuries and COVID. On the other side, the Nuggets 5 game losing streak has led them to slide down the Western Conference Standings. Coming into tonight’s game, they are currently the 10th seed in the West. Nikola Jokic is a game-time decision with a wrist injury. Even if the reigning MVP can give it a go, I like the Bucks to win this game and cover the spread.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

My favorite prop bet of the night is to take Giannis Antetokounmpo to go off for a big game. Nikola Jokic does not have the speed and quickness to guard the Greek Freak in both the half-court and in transition. If the Nuggets opt to put Jeff Green on Antetokonmpo, it will surely be a long night. In last year’s playoffs, the Brooklyn Nets eventually had to limit Green’s time on the court because of his ineffectiveness when guarding Antetokounmpo. Note: Don’t forget to check out our Week 12 NFL picks!