Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State Prediction 11/27/21

by | Nov 24, 2021 | cfb

Oklahoma Sooners (10-1 SU, 5-6 ATS) vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS)

When: Saturday, November 27, 7:30 p.m.

Where: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, Okla.

TV: ABC

Point Spread: OKLA +4/OKST -4

Total: O/U 49.5

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Outlook

Could the biggest Bedlam Game in years also be the last one ever played in Stillwater? It could be the case after Mike Gundy’s comments this week, as the Sooners plan to leave for the SEC as soon as possible and the Cowboys are ticked at Oklahoma and have raised the possibility of ending the series. Based on their on-field history against the Sooners, ending the Bedlam Game wouldn’t really be the worst thing in the world for the Cowboys; they’re just 18-90-7 all-time against Oklahoma.

But Oklahoma State has been the stronger team all season long and could finally break Oklahoma’s stranglehold on the Big 12. Ever since the league went to 10 teams and was able to hold a conference championship game despite playing a full round-robin, the Big 12 title game has basically been the Oklahoma Invitational. The Sooners have never failed to make the Big 12 title game in the 10-team era, but if they don’t beat the Cowboys, that’s exactly what will happen, as Baylor would face Oklahoma State for the crown with a Cowboy win here. Oklahoma has won this game six years in a row and hasn’t lost in Stillwater since 2011. But just like that 2011 game, the Cowboys have a chance to play for a national title if they can get past the Sooners and have other results go their way. Things didn’t fall Oklahoma State’s way in 2011, but they did rout the Sooners 44-10 that season. A similar outcome isn’t likely, but based on how each team has looked, there’s a reason Oklahoma State is giving points.

How the Public is Betting the Oklahoma/Oklahoma State Game

The public is impressed with the Cowboys to this point, as 61 percent of all tickets have come in on Oklahoma State, with the spread ticking up from -3.5 to -4. The total has dropped from 51.5 to 49.5, a surprising turn for this rivalry.

Injury Concerns

Oklahoma:
Wide receiver Theo Wease (leg) is questionable. Defensive back Jeremiah Criddell (undisclosed), wide receiver Cody Jackson (personal), defensive back Nathan Rawlins-Kibonge (undisclosed) and defensive back Kendall Dennis (undisclosed) are out.

Oklahoma State:
Tight end Braden Cassity (leg) is questionable. Wide receiver Langston Anderson (undisclosed), running back LD Brown (undisclosed), wide receiver Braydon Johnson (undisclosed) and defensive end Trace Ford (knee) are out.

When Oklahoma Has the Ball

The big question is whether it’s going to be Spencer Rattler or Caleb Williams taking the start for Oklahoma. The Sooners have not come close to their usual formula of plug in a quarterback and let him pick up where the previous guy left off, as their offense has alternated between explosive and pedestrian depending on the day. The Sooners can certainly move the ball well, but they’re equally likely to do something foolish and set the opponent up with a short field.

The one player that the Sooners have been able to count on consistently is Kennedy Brooks, who has 10 touchdowns on the season and has rushed for 972 yards on the year. But that might not work against Oklahoma State, which gives up just 82.6 yards per game on the ground and has held opponents to a mere 14.9 points per game this season.

When Oklahoma State Has the Ball

Spencer Sanders needs to be on his game in this one, because the way you beat Oklahoma is by throwing the football. The Sooners have a solid run defense themselves, so Jaylen Warren and his 1,078 rushing yards for the year might not be the best choice in this situation. But Oklahoma gives up 262 yards a game through the air, and teams with good quarterback play have been able to move the ball on the Sooners, which means that the Cowboys’ success will likely be decided by Sanders’ play.

Throughout the year, Sanders has been mostly a game manager, as the Cowboys simply ask him to make good reads and not turn the ball over. He’s done that this season, shaving his interceptions from eight the year before to six this season in 17 more pass attempts. With the Cowboys boasting such a strong defense, elite offense is usually not necessary from Oklahoma State’s side. As long as Sanders doesn’t give the Sooners short fields, there’s a good chance the Cowboys are going to grind out enough points to get a win.

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Betting Trends

People think points when it comes to Oklahoma, and it just hasn’t been true in November. The under has cashed in six of the Sooners’ past seven games in November, and it’s hit in seven of nine games for Oklahoma State in the same month. Bedlam has traditionally been a nightmare for the Cowboys, as Oklahoma has covered in four straight trips to Stillwater. But the Cowboys have hit their stride since the second week of the season, covering in nine consecutive games since escaping from Tulsa. Meanwhile, Oklahoma has only managed consecutive covers once all season, that coming when the Sooners covered against TCU after besting Texas.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a cold night by the time the teams kick off, with temperatures falling into the low 40s and dropping to the mid 30s by the end of the evening. Wind won’t be much of a factor, as it will blow at eight miles per hour to the north.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Oklahoma State has hit on all cylinders for the past two months, and the Cowboys appear to have the upper hand in this matchup. Plus, not only does Oklahoma State have more to play for, but with the possibility that the Sooners might never come to Stillwater again, the Cowboys have motivation off the charts in this one.

I think this spread is too low; I like the Cowboys to cover. Note: Don’t forget to check out our Week 12 NFL picks!

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