NBA Betting Strategy: Rebounding Margin

NBA Betting Strategy: Catching SomeNBA Teams On The Rebound
by Charles Jay, NBA Handicapper, Predictem.com

When you think about it, if there is one skill in basketball that works on both the offensive and defensive end, it’s rebounding. It might make sense to some that the best rebounding teams are the ones who have the most success in the win column. Well, that’s not exactly so, as we’ll touch upon in a moment.

But sports bettors may wonder whether there has been a relationship between efficiency in rebounding and a winning record against the point spread. Some quick research indicates that if you figured that, you were on to something.

I took a look at the stats and pointspread records of teams as of January 9, 2013 - so they’re very recent - and came up with some correlations that you may find interesting:

Offensive rebounding is obviously very important, since it helps to produce second-chance opportunities for teams. Only four of them in the NBA - Denver, Minnesota, Memphis and Brooklyn - had pulled down more than 30% of the available offensive rebounds. Together, those teams were pretty respectable, if not spectacular, as a pointspread proposition, covering 55.5% of games overall. The teams pulling down 22% of those chances or less - a group, by the way, that includes the San Antonio Spurs and the Miami Heat (see, we touched upon it) - covered 47.9% of their games.

That was nothing particularly awe-inspiring, but there was better evidence elsewhere. For example, fifteen NBA teams had an overall rebounding percentage - putting together both offensive and defensive opportunities - of 50% or better, and ten of those teams had winning records against the spread. The VERY best teams in this department; i.e., those that had a percentage of 52% or higher (Denver, Minnesota, Memphis, Indiana, Golden State and Oklahoma City) were 119-85 ATS, which is 58.3%!

The teams that were able to snare 74% or more of the defensive rebounds that were available (a group of eight clubs) all had winning ATS marks and were 55.8% successful against the number. They were also very successful as favorites, with a 58.8% success rate. Two teams - Chicago and Sacramento - were below 70% in this category, and perhaps not coincidentally, they had combined to cover 41.8% of their games, something that would certainly interesta guy putting loot on a game.

What is rebounding margin? Well, it’s the number of rebounds a
team gets compared to the number of rebounds its opponent gets. There were
six teams in the NBA that had a rebounding margin of +3 or better, and those
teams not only had covered 58.3% of their games, they were a sizzling 62.5%
as home favorites. And those clubs with a margin of minus-3 or worse (Sacramento,
Phoenix, Toronto, Dallas and Boston) had been only 45.5% successful in covering.

It may not be the end-all or be-all, but rebounding percentages and margins may be something worth keeping an eye on.

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