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NBA Pick: Raptors vs. 76ers

by | Feb 5, 2019 | nba

Toronto Raptors (38-16 SU, 24-30 ATS) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (34-19 SU, 25-28 ATS)
When: Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 8:00 PM ET
Where: Wells Fargo Center – Philadelphia, PA

Point Spread: TOR +4.5 / PHI -4.5
Total: 228
Power Rankings: Philadelphia -6

Takeaways from Toronto and Philadelphia’s Most Recent Games

The Raptors come in off an impressive win on Super Bowl Sunday when they hosted the Los Angeles Clippers in the Great White North and went to work on them. As a nine-point favorite, the Raptors covered with ease when they rolled the Clippers by a score of 121-103.

The 76ers were the victims of an upset loss on the road in Sacramento on Saturday when the Kings defeated them by a score of 115-108. The Sixers closed as a three-point favorite in that match after they pulled a stunning upset of the Golden State Warriors in Oakland in the contest preceding their loss against the Kings.

How the Public is Betting the Toronto-Philadelphia Game

Presently, 56% of the betting public like the Raptors with the points. As a result of this we have seen the line fall by half of a point from the Sixers spotting five points at the open of this market to its current position of Philadelphia -4.5.

The Historicals

These two teams last met on December 22nd, 2018 when the Raptors were hosted by the 76ers and subsequently lit them up in a 126-101 drubbing. The Sixers closed as a seven-point favorite to snap a two-game losing streak and skid against the spread against their divisional rivals.

Injury Concerns

Raptors Point Guard Kyle Lowry is listed as doubtful for this game due to a lower back injury. Lowry was held out of the Raptors’ last game against Los Angeles. For Philadelphia, Forward Wilson Chandler is out due to a quadriceps injury and is not expected back until the end of the month.

Rest Concerns and Advantages

For Toronto, this is the beginning of a three-game road trip that will take them through to New York before returning home next Monday to host the Brooklyn Nets. Contrarily, this is Philadelphia’s first game back home since returning from a four-game West Coast road-trip. The Sixers have also had one extra day to prepare for this contest.

Can Toronto Go To The Bench To Get The Win?

The Raptors come into this contest with several key edges that can make them a viable threat in this match. First is their bench play. The Raptors bench generates 35.4 points per game compared to Philadelphia’s bench which contributes 33.5 points per contest. In addition to this variable, the Raptors commit less turnovers and they play a significantly better brand of defense compared to their counterparts. Toronto sits tenth in the NBA in scoring defense giving up 108.5 points per game compared to Philly who sits 22nd surrendering 112 points per contest. Toronto is a top-five free throw shooting team (80.2%) that has a great situational match-up against the Sixers who sit 26th in opponent free throw percentage at 77.8%.

Can Philadelphia Bully The Raptors On The Boards?

Philadelphia stands as one of the premiere rebounding teams on both sides of the court. The Sixers stand fifth in offensive rebounding as they produce 47.4 offensive boards per game while also giving up a fourth-ranked 43.2 defensive boards per contest. The Sixers will take advantage of a Toronto team that stands 16th in the league in both facets. In addition, Philadelphia’s fourth-ranked scoring offense (115.5 points per game) can provide them with a spark when they need it and ignite the home crowd which has proven to be instrumental in the Sixers’ success as they stand 21-5 SU in Philadelphia.

Betting Trends

Overall, Toronto has gone 12-4 ATS in the previous 16 meetings between these two Atlantic Division adversaries. For Over/Under players, the Over is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 matches.

Keith’s Pick to Cover the Spread: Philadelphia -4.5

Situationally, the Sixers enter into a notoriously and historically profitable spot. Teams that return from home from long road trips have been proven to be quite kind to investors that back them. Given the fact that Philadelphia has been a beast on its own court all season, this creates even more appeal to back the Sixers here. Moreover, several books would also argue that the Sixers are undervalued here and this is where bettors can take advantage. The fact that the public have gravitated toward the points in this market would reinforce that very principle as this is a proven sign of a short-sold favorite. The present market is a direct reflection of an overreaction to the Philly’s let-down loss at Sacramento combined with the impressive display of dominance by the Raptors against the Clippers on Sunday. However, Philadelphia will soon forget about how they ended their road trip when they run the defending division champs out of town.

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