NBA Predictions: Wizards vs. Bucks 2/1/22

by | Feb 1, 2022 | nba

Washington Wizards (23-26 SU, 19-29-1 ATS) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (31-21 SU, 22-30-0 ATS)

When: Tuesday February 01 2022, 07:30 PM (ET)

Where: Fiserv Forum: Milwaukee, Wisconsin

TV: BSWI

Point Spread: WAS 11.5/MIL -11.5 (Opened at -11.5 at MyBookie - Enter bonus code PREDICT100 and receive a special 100% bonus on your deposit up to $300!)

Total: 223.5 (Opened at 224)

Money Line: Washington 500/Milwaukee -750

Power Rating: MIL -11

Probable Starting Lineups

Washington: PG Spencer Dinwiddie, SG Deni Avdija, SF Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, PF Kyle Kuzma, C Montrezl Harrell

Milwaukee: PG Jrue Holiday, SG Grayson Allen, SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Bobby Portis

Key Injuries

Wizards No Reported Injuries

Bucks George Hill: neck (QUESTIONABLE) Brook Lopez: back (OUT)

Recent Form

The Washington Wizards enter today’s game, losing five straight games. After their hot start to the season, Washington has slipped down the standings, coming in ranked 12th in the Eastern Conference. Over their past ten games, the team has picked up four wins. Among NBA teams, they have played the 20th most challenging schedule.

For bettors, taking the Washington Wizards against the spread has been a losing bet as they have covered in just 36% of their games. Their season-long plus-minus against the spread is -2.2.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is SG Bradley Beal. So far, Beal is averaging 23.2 points per game, placing him 4th among NBA shooting guards. The Wizards’ best three-point shooter has been Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, connecting on 2.02 shots from downtown per game at a rate of 38%.

The Milwaukee Bucks enter today’s game, having won half of their past ten games. When playing at home, the Bucks are an above .500 team, having gone 18-9. As they get set to host the Wizards, Milwaukee has a positive home plus-minus of 4.4 points. Overall the Bucks are ranked 8th among NBA teams in point differential (5.7). This figure has come while playing the 4th easiest schedule in the league.

Coming into the game, the Bucks have an ATS record of just 22-30. This trend also includes a below .500 mark when playing Eastern Conference opponents at just 15-21.

On offense, the team’s leading scorer is SF Giannis Antetokounmpo. So far, Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.79 points per game while also adding 11.2 rebounds. The Bucks’ best three-point shooter has been Grayson Allen, who has connected on 2.6 shots from downtown per game at a rate of 39%.

An Eye On Pace

This matchup features two teams looking to play at different speeds. So far, Milwaukee’s average of 88.8 field goal attempts per contest places them 10th in the NBA. On the other side, Washington averages the 7th fewest shots per game. This tendency to play at a slow tempo is also represented by their 29th in three-point attempts.

Key Matchups

A key matchup to watch in this game is how the Wizards deal with Giannis Antetokounmpo inside. Throughout the year, the Greek Freak has had some of his biggest games when he gets to the free-throw line at an above-average rate. On the year, Washington is ranked 20th in free-throw attempts allowed per field goal attempt. In addition, I expect Antetokounmpo to have a big night on the boards as the Wizards give up offensive rebounds above the league average.

The Historicals

This game between the Wizards and Buck will be their second meeting of the season, with Washington picking up the 101-94 win on November 7th.

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How the Public is Betting the Wizards vs Bucks

55% are betting the Bucks against the spread.

54% are wagering on the game to go under the posted total of 224.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

  • The Wizards are 17-35 ATS in their last 52 games playing on two days rest.
  • The Wizards are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
  • The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a straight-up loss of more than ten points.
  • The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game off a disappointing blowout loss to the Denver Nuggets. Even though Milwaukee dropped game one of the series, I expect the Bucks to get back on track. However, with a spread sitting at 11.5 points in favor of Milwaukee, I like Washington to cover.

Prop Bets Worth Wagering

My favorite prop bet of the night is to take the over on Giannis Antetokounmpo’s rebounding prop of 10.5 boards. Throughout the season, Washington has struggled inside, giving up an above-average number of offensive rebounds. Another option would be to take the Greek Freek to put up a double-double.