New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors Free Pick 4/7/18

New Orleans Pelicans (45-34 SU, 42-36 ATS) vs. Golden State Warriors (57-22 SU, 33-45 ATS)
Time: Saturday, April 7, 2018 8:35 PM EDT
Where: Oracle Arena Oakland, CA
by Keith, Professional NBA Handicapper, Predictem

Odds New Orleans +245, Golden State -330
Point Spread: Golden State -7.5
Total Line: 224

The New Orleans Pelicans and the Golden State Warriors will meet for a Western Conference collision set to take place at the infamous O or also known as the Oracle Arena in Oakland, California. The game is set for a tip-off of 8:35 PM EDT and will be televised on FSN. Both teams are on their way to the postseason. However, in the last ten meetings between both parties, the Warriors have swept all ten contests with victories. Most recently, Golden State thumped New Orleans 125-115 in December in the Big Easy.

Both teams enter off contrasting notions. For New Orleans, the Pelicans enter off a wins against the lowly Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies. Very simply, the Pelicans have been snacking on cupcakes to stack up wins. Golden State is still reeling from a twenty-point road loss at Indiana on Thursday night. The loss was one that sent ripples across the NBA as Golden State was bullied on the Pacers court.

Betting Trends

There are several trends worth looking at in this fixture. First off, Golden State is 3-1 ATS against New Orleans in the previous four meetings. Moreover, the Over is 7-3 ATS in the last ten meetings in this series. New Orleans is 21-17 SU away from home whilst Golden State is 29-11 SU at home. Most notably, Golden State has split their losses down the middle both at home and on the road. This is considered incredulous considering the Warriors are known for a robust home court advantage.

Handicapping Analysis

The Pelicans feature advantages in the rebounding and turnover department. This, of course, can be chalked up to the presence of Anthony Davis and Demarcus Cousins in the frontcourt. Whilst Golden State may have the more talented ensemble, the Pelicans have a more physical presence by the hoop which can be a tough riddle for Golden State to solve.

The Warriors are still the standard of the NBA. Despite their prevalent woes, the Warriors feature some elite talent on their roster. Furthermore, Golden State has absolutely owned New Orleans and that emotional edge is one that the Warriors can utilize to rebound from their bitter defeat in Indianapolis.

Public Money

From the start, we have seen a lean take shape on the Warriors. This is reflected in the Warriors opening as a seven-point favorite before the line rose by half of a point to where it currently stands. In Over/Under markets, we saw a half-point decrease as well to reflect action coming in on the Under in this contest. The Over bodes a price tag of +105 in the current state. Additionally, we have also seen the Warriors be offered at a price of +101 in some markets.

Pelicans at Warriors Pick ATS

Golden States recent successes in this series is what is driving the price of this market. The fact remains, the Warriors do not look nearly as dominant as what we have seen them in years past. Additionally, the mystique of the Oracle Arena is another component that has quickly waned. The Warriors may indeed win this game but if there was ever a moment for New Orleans to snap the funk against this team, it would be now. New Orleans will have heightened confidence entering this game as they know the Warriors will be quite vulnerable after their debacle against the Pacers. When you toss in a heavy propensity for the public to back Golden State by virtue of their namesake alone, you are getting a very good price on a quality basketball team. Dont be shocked if the Pelicans orchestrate an upset outright here.

KEITHs PICK: New Orleans +7.5