Nuggets vs. Hornets Prediction ATS

by | Mar 28, 2022 | nba

Denver Nuggets (44-31 SU, 34-41-0 ATS) vs. Charlotte Hornets (39-36 SU, 41-32-2 ATS)
When: Monday March 28 2022, 07:00 PM (ET)
Where: Spectrum Center, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ALT

Point Spread: DEN -4/CHA +4 (Opened DEN -3.5 at Bookmaker)
Total: 232.5 (Opened at 231.5)
Money Line: Denver Nuggets -167/Charlotte Hornets 139
Power Rating: DEN -5

Probable Starting Lineups

Denver Nuggets PG Monte Morris, SG Will Barton, SF Aaron Gordon, PF Jeff Green, C Nikola Jokic
Charlotte Hornets PG LaMelo Ball, SG Terry Rozier, SF Miles Bridges, PF PJ Washington, C Mason Plumlee

Key Injuries

Denver Nuggets Facundo Campazzo: Illness (OUT) JaMychal Green: Wrist (QUESTIONABLE) Michael Porter Jr.: Back (OUT) Vlatko Cancar: Foot (OUT) Zeke Nnaji: Knee (OUT)

Charlotte Hornets James Bouknight: Neck (OUT) Gordon Hayward: Ankle (OUT)

The Charlotte Hornets host the Denver Nuggets in a Non-Conference matchup. Tip-off is set for 07:00 PM ET at the Spectrum Center.

Recent Form

The Denver Nuggets come into this game with an overall record of 44-31, placing them 6th in the Western Conference. So far, Denver is above .500 on the road, holding a record of 22-16. Over the Nuggets’ last five games, they have picked up just 2 wins. During this stretch, Denver is averaging 118.0 points per game, 6.0 points more than their season average of 111.8. This uptick in offensive play has come while playing a group of opponents who are collectively giving up 107.0 points per contest. A key reason for Denver’s recent struggles is a defensive unit giving up 121.0 points over their previous five contests. This figure is up from their season average of 109.4. In the Denver Nuggets’ most recent game, Denver took down the Okla City by a score of 113-107

The Charlotte Hornets come into this game with an overall record of 39-36, placing them 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far, Charlotte is above .500 at home, holding a record of 20-18. The Hornets have played well over their last five games, picking up 4 wins. In this stretch, Charlotte’s offense is scoring right in line with their season average, putting up 113.0 points per game. Combined, the Hornets’ last five opponents are giving up 108.0 points per contest. The Hornets come into this game also playing well defensively, holding their opponents to just 109.0 points per game. An improvement on their season average of 114.4. In the Charlotte Hornets’ most recent game, Charlotte took down Brooklyn by a score of 119-110.

Individual Player Analysis

As Denver travels to take on the Charlotte Hornets, the Nuggets’ leading scorer is Nikola Jokic. Through 68 games, Jokic is averaging 26 points. On the season, he has surpassed his season average in 43.0% of his games. Against the Hornets, Jokic will need to be on top of his game as Charlotte is allowing their opponent’s top scorer to surpass their average in 45.0% of their games, placing them in the top 10. On the other side, Miles Bridges leads the Hornets in scoring, averaging 20 points across his 73 games. Throughout the season, Bridges has outscored his season average in 49.0% of his outings. However, if he hopes to add to this total, Bridges will need to do so against a Nuggets defense that has been tough on their opponent’s top scorers. So far, leading scores have surpassed their season average at a rate of just 41.94%. This figure is good for a rank of 6th in the league.

Matchup Analysis

Heading into this matchup, the Denver Nuggets are the more efficient team on both ends of the court. This scenario has taken place in 16 of Denver’s 38 games, leading to a winning percentage of 69%. So far, the Charlotte Hornets have played 43 games as the inferior offensive and defensive unit. In these instances, they have lost 43 times, by an average margin of -11.0 points.

The Historicals

Heading into today’s matchup, the Denver Nuggets and Charlotte Hornets have met up for 1 game. Charlotte took game one by a score of 115-107.

How the Public is Betting the Nuggets vs Hornets

67% are betting the Nuggets against the spread.
52% are wagering on the game to go over the posted total of 231.5

Betting Trends Worth Noting

Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Hornets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Hornets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.

Joe’s Pick to Cover the Spread

Heading into this matchup, the Denver Nuggets are 4 point road favorites. However, they have dropped two-straight games vs the spread. On the other side, the Hornets are coming off a big win over the Brooklyn Nets, moving into a tie for the 8th seed in the East. In terms of betting, Charlotte has covered in two straight contests. Look for Denver to take advantage of the fact that the Hornets are playing on back-to-back nights, as they cover the spread.