Orlando Magic (52-22 SU 37-32-5 ATS) vs. Dallas Mavericks (50-25 SU 30-42-2 ATS) American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX 8 PM EST Thursday April 1, 2010 on TNT
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Orlando -2.5/Dallas +2.5
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Tonight in the Big D in a match up of a couple of teams in 2nd place in their respective conferences, the Dallas Mavericks host the Orlando Magic. Unless the Magic implode they should snag the 2nd seed in the East while the Mavs have to finish the season strong to get the 2nd seed in the West.
The Magic lead 3rd place Atlanta by 4 games while the Mavs only lead 3rd place Utah by game, 4th place Phoenix by 1 game, and 5th place Denver by 2 games.
Dallas has won 3 in a row and is 6-4 in their last 10 games and Orlando has won 2 in a row and is 8-2 in their last 10 games.
This season the Mavericks are 26-11 at home and the Magic are 22-15 on the road.
Dallas has beat Orlando in 6 of their last 7 meetings.
The Magic may need some players to pick up the scoring slack tonight, as 2nd leading scorer Vince Carter (16.5 ppg) may miss this game with a toe injury.
Orlando’s centers Brendan Haywood (9.3 ppg 9.6 rpg) and Erick Dampier (6.4 ppg 7.6 rpg) have to play well tonight and keep Magic C Dwight Howard (18.6 ppg 13.3 rpg) from having a big scoring game and controlling the glass. Overall the Magic are a much better rebounding team and Dallas has to hit the boards as a team.
Orlando really has to key in Dirk Nowitzki (24.7 ppg),
who has really torched them in the last few years. In the last 9 games against
the Magic Nowitzki has averaged 28.1 ppg and in his last 14 he has at least
Orlando’s shooters of Rashard Lewis (14.4 ppg), Jameer Nelson (12.2 ppg), and J.J. Reddick (9.6 ppg) have to hit their open J’s tonight to open up the lane for Howard to work his Magic, no pun intended.
In their last game the Mavs did not look good, but came back to beat the Memphis Grizzlies 106-102 in OT last night. The high scorer for Dallas in the game was Dirk Nowitzki going for 28 points, but he was only 9/23 from the floor. For the game the Mavs shot 38/89 for a FG% of 42.7%. On defense the Mavs allowed the Grizzlies to shoot 38/93 for a FG% of 40.9%.
The Magic have had a few days to rest, as their last game was a 103-97 win over the Denver Nuggets on Sunday. The high scorer for Orlando in the game was reserve J.J. Reddick going for 23 points on 8/15 shooting. For the game the Magic shot well going 39/79 for a FG% of 49.4%. On D the Magic allowed the Nuggets to shoot 42/80 for a FG% of 52.5%.
This season both teams are almost even in scoring, as the Magic rank 10th (101.9 ppg) and the Mavs rank 11th (101.7 ppg). On defense the Magic rank 6th in opponents’ points allowed (95 ppg) and the Mavs rank 15th (99.6 ppg). The Magic have been a better team on the glass, as they have a rebounding differential of +3.1 rpg and the Mavs are at -1.1 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Magic rank 3rd (95.77) and the Mavs rank 11th (93.09).
Orlando is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a win, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest, and 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than 60%.
Orlando has an Under record of 6-2 in their last 8 road games against teams with a winning home record and has an Over record of 4-0 in Magic last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, 5-26-1 ATS in their last 32 home games, and 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record.
Dallas has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games and an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
On the injury front SF Mickael Pietrus and SG Vince Carter are day-to-day for Orlando and C Brendan Haywood and SF Shawn Marion are day-to-day for Dallas.
Jason’s Pick: I love the UNDER in this matchup.