Phoenix Suns (29-11 24-24-1 ATS) vs. Denver Nuggets (33-15 22-24-1 ATS) Pepsi Center, Denver, CO 10:30 PM EST Wednesday February 3, 2010 on ESPN
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Suns +7.5/Nuggets -7.5
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Tonight in a Western Conference match up the Denver Nuggets host the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are 4 games under .500 on the road this season, but they have won their last 2 road games and have won 3 in a row overall. Phoenix is 5-5 in their last 10 games and still trail the L.A. Lakers by 8.5 games in the Pacific Division. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league, are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and lead the Northwest Division by 3.5 games.
This season Denver is 22-3 at home and Phoenix is only 11-15 on the road.
The Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the league giving up an average of 107.8 ppg. However, while it has not been drastic one of the main reasons for their 3-game winning streak is their D, which has allowed an average of 105.7 ppg on 43.9% shooting. That is a lot better than their previous 7 games where they gave up an average of 114.3 ppg on almost 50% shooting.
Even though Denver won 3 games in a row without Carmelo Anthony (29.7 ppg) in the lineup he is back and they need him, as before the All Star break next weekend the Nuggets play the top 5 teams in the Western Conference.
There is no place like home for Denver, as they not only have the most home wins and fewest home losses, but they also have won their last 9 games there.
Suns’ PG Steve Nash (18.3 ppg 11.1 assists per game) has been dealing with an abdominal injury, but he should go tonight.
This game is all about offense, as the Suns have the highest scoring team in the league and the Nuggets are the 3rd highest scoring team. Both teams can run and gun, but Denver may need to slow the tempo down, as they have a better half court game.
In their last game the Nuggets beat the Sacramento Kings 112-109 in OT on Monday night. The high scorer for Denver in the game was Kenyon Martin going for 24 points on 10/15 shooting and he grabbed 12 boards. For the game the Nuggets shot 41/89 from the floor for a FG% of 46.1%. On D the Nuggets allowed the Kings to shoot 40/82 for a FG% of 48.8%.
The Suns beat the New Orleans Saints in the Big Easy 109-100 in their last game also on Monday night. The high scorer for Phoenix in the game was Amare Stoudemire going for 25 points on 10/20 shooting and he grabbed 12 boards. For the game the Suns shot lights out going 43/83 for a FG% of 51.8%. On defense the Suns allowed the Hornets to shoot 41/90 for a FG% of 46.6%.
This season the suns rank 1st in scoring (110 ppg) and the Nuggets rank 3rd (107 ppg). On D neither team is a stopper, as the Nuggets rank 20th (101.6 ppg) and the Suns rank 29th (107.8 ppg). Both teams are in the negative in terms of rebounding differential, as the Nuggets are at -0.3 rpg and the Suns are at -1.6 rpg.
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According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Nuggets rank 6th (94.31) and the Suns rank 11th (92.46).
Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%.
Denver is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games against teams with a losing road record.
Phoenix has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games, an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 road games, and has an Under record of 7-3 in their last 10 games against teams with a winning percentage above 60%.
Denver has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games against teams with the losing record on the road.
In the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams the home team has gone 10-2 ATS and in Denver 4 of the last 5 games have gone Over.
On the injury front SF Carmelo Anthony is day-to-day for Denver and PG Steve Nash is day-to-day for Phoenix.
Jason’s Pick: Even though the Suns have won 2 road games in a row they face the best home team tonight in the Nuggets. The Nuggets will play a solid game and their defense will play better and that will be the key. The Nuggets will win this game convincingly for their 2nd win in a row and 10th in a row at home.