Portland Trailblazers (30-24 28-24-2) vs. Phoenix Suns (31-21 27-24-1) US Airways Center, Phoenix, AZ 9 PM EST Wednesday February 10, 2010 on FAHD
by Jason Green at Predictem.com
Point Spread: Blazers +8 / Suns -8
Tonight in the Valley of the Sun the streaking Phoenix Suns host the slumping Portland Trailblazers. The Suns have won 5 straight, are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and still trail the L.A. Lakers by 8.5 games in the Pacific Division. The Blazers have lost 2 straight, are only 4-6 in their last 10 games, and are in 4th place in the Northwest Division 6 games back of the Denver Nuggets.
Phoenix is on pretty solid footing in the Western Conference, as they currently hold the 5th position while the Blazers are still in the playoff picture, but hold the 8th and last position in the West.
This season the Suns are 18-6 at home and the Blazers are only 12-13 on the road.
The Blazers will likely be without star Brandon Roy (23.1 ppg), who has missed 11 straight games with a hamstring injury. With Roy out the Blazers have lost 7 of those 11 games.
Amare Stoudemire (21.2 ppg 8.6 rpg) has been rumored to be on the trading block, but the Suns may have to keep him, as in the Suns recent 4-0 road trip he averaged 27.8 ppg and 12.3 rpg.
Jerryd Bayless (9.8 ppg), who replaced Roy in the starting lineup, was solid in his first 9 starts averaging 14 ppg, but in his next 2 games he only averaged 6.5 ppg.
Nicolas Batum (9.6 ppg) has started the last couple games with Bayless struggling and he may get the start tonight, but whoever starts needs to give the Blazers some offensive production.
The Blazers are not a high scoring team so they need to play some defense against the Suns, who are the highest scoring team in the NBA.
In their last game the Blazers lost to the Oklahoma City Thunder last night 89-77. The high scorer for Portland was Andre Miller going for 22 points on 9/18 shooting. For the game the Blazers did not shoot well going 31/77 for a FG% of 40.3%. On D the Blazers did not play bad holding the Thunder to 31/73 shooting for a FG% of 42.5%.
The Suns won their last game beating the Sacramento Kings 114-102 last Friday night. The high scorer for Phoenix was Amare Stoudemire going for 30 points on 10/16 shooting and he grabbed 9 boards. For the game the Suns shot 38/78 for a FG% of 48.7%. On defense the Suns allowed the Kings to shoot 36/81 for a FG% of 44.4%.
This season the Suns are the highest scoring team in the league (110.1 ppg) while the Blazers rank 22nd (97.7 ppg). On defense the Blazers rank a legit 4th in points allowed (95.2 ppg) while the Suns are far from legit ranking 29th (107.5 ppg). Portland has been better on the boards this season with a rebounding differential of +2.3 rpg while the Suns are in the negative at -1.3 rpg.
According to the Sagarin NBA ratings the Suns rank 9th (92.83) and the Blazers rank 12th (91.97).
Portland is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning home record.
Portland has an 5-0 in Trail Blazers last 5 road games, an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5, and has an Under record of 4-1 in their last 5 games.
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games, and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a losing road record.
Phoenix has an Under record of 5-2 in their last 7 home games and has an Under record of 4-1 their last 5 home games against teams with a losing road record.
The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games between these 2 teams and the total has gone Over in 7 of the last 10 games in this match up.
On the injury front SG Brandon Roy is day-to-day for Portland while Phoenix is not reporting any significant injuries.
Jason’s Pick: This game doesn’t have a ton of betting value but I were forced to make a pick I’d say that this has a decent shot of going over the total.