NFL Football Season Wins
by Jerald of Predictem.com
The 2007 NFL season is fast approaching. While I dont recommend large wagers on season wins because of the fact that your money will be tied up for approximately 4 months, here are some plays that you can put down a few units on and give yourself a chance to make a profit.
The way I have approached these plays is that I took the stats from last year and converted them into expected wins. I used the Pythagorean Formula for wins that Bill James came up with for Major League Baseball. Basically this formula stats that you can predict the winning percentage of a team based on the scores made compared to the scores given up.
In a nutshell, the formula is winning percentage is equal to total points scored (squared) divided by total points scored (squared) plus (total points allowed (squared). We will use this as a base to determine which teams over or under performed last year and make predictions for 2007.
Chicago Bears over 10 wins The numbers showed that the Bears should have won 11.8 games when they actually won 13 so they over performed; however, that is still much above the number set for 2007. I believe that Quarterback Rex Grossman should be improved this year and the Bear defense should be very good again. We will take the over 10 wins for the Bears.
Seattle under 9 wins Seattle had a winning record (9-7) last year despite being outscored by their opponents. The expected wins was 7.8. The number for this year is again set at 9 and we will go with the under for the Seahawks.
San Francisco under 8 wins Last year the stats show that San Francisco over performed by winning 7 games despite an expected winning percentage that would have given them 5.5 wins. I dont think the 49ers will show that much improvement this year and will play them under 8 wins.
Buffalo over 6 wins The numbers from last year show that the Bills should have won 7.7 games. I believe they will continue to improve as J.P. Losman will be given more freedom and their younger players now have some experience under their belt. I will play the Bills to win more than 6 games in 2007 and feel good about it.
Jacksonville over 9 wins The Jaguars were huge underperformers last year as there point totals showed that they should have won 10.5 games and they were only able to win 8. I think that will turn around for them this year and will play them to win more than 9 games. Their three headed monster at running back should keep the core unit on offense clicking smoothly. They also enjoy one of the best home field advantages in the NFL.
Oakland under 5 wins The Raiders were horrible last year winning only 2 games. The numbers showed that they should have been expected to win 3 but I dont see how they can get to 5 wins even with the new coaching staff, a rookie QB and a porous offensive line that doesn’t appear to have improved since last year. I will play Oakland to win less than 5 games.