5Dimes Player Prop Bets for NFL 2019-2020
NFL Player Prop Bets at 5Dimes
In this article, we break down various player prop bets for the upcoming NFL season. In the ever-changing landscape of the NFL, these bets really force the bettor to dig deep for analysis. A lot of players on this list are either on new teams or in new systems, where any number of different possibilities exist. These are also bets that pack a lot of action into a single bet. Similar to the season long league-wide prop bets these player prop bets take a long time to unfold, as you are involved the whole way. Each week, you watch these games and root for the players you picked to either succeed or struggle, depending on which stance you took. All odds are again taken from 5Dimes Sportsbook extensive prop bet menu. Let’s take a look at some different player prop bets, along with our picks and analysis!
NFL Regular Season Propositions
A.Brown season receiving yards ov 1250½ -115
A.Brown season receiving yards un 1250½ -125
Pick and Analysis: Under. It seems counter-intuitive, as he’s eclipsed this total in each of the last six seasons. Turning 30 and moving to a far less-successful team with a quarterback who isn’t as aerial as the guy you’re used to doesn’t add up to the same success. He will no doubt be a valuable weapon, but this number would appear to be at the very top-end of his range with the Raiders this season.
L.Bell season rec+rush yards over 1726½ +115
L.Bell season rec+rush yards under 1726½ -155
Pick and Analysis: Under. He took a year off and goes to a far less-explosive offensive team. He has been both injured and suspended. Even if he stays out of trouble on those fronts, it’s not as easy at it looks to go from the specialized threat he was in Pittsburgh’s offense a few years ago and magically make that work in a completely different context. He should be good, but this could be asking for too much.
O.Beckham Jr season rec yards over 1225½ +100
O.Beckham Jr season rec yds under 1225½ -140
Pick and Analysis: Under. First of all, there is weaponry around him with Duke Johnson, Jarvis Landry, David Njoku, Antonio Callaway, and others needing touches. He’s not the all-so-obvious first choice as he was with the Giants. Injuries also loom, as he has played over 12 games just twice in a five-year career. While getting to this number isn’t in any way a pipe dream, it seems to be a lofty prognostication.
O.Beckham Jr season receptions over 93½ -120
O.Beckham Jr season receptions under 93½ -120
Pick and Analysis: Under. I see Cleveland’s offense spreading the ball around, while also running it to good affect. And with all the options through the air, it’s hard to imagine Beckham, Jr. being that much of a focal-point—at least not 94 receptions worth. There’s Landry, Chubb, Johnson, Callaway, Njoku, and others and while ODB should have a good season, he might not achieve the individual numerical supremacy he had with the Giants.
K.Murray season passing TD’s over 18.5 -155
K.Murray season passing TD’s under 18½ +115
Pick and Analysis: Over. This isn’t even about forecasting an abundance of success for either the rookie quarterback or the Arizona offense as a whole. But with the offensive philosophy of Kingsbury, a more-aerial focus should ensue. While they have no stars in the receiving corps, the combination of Larry Fitzgerald, pass-catching backs, and some rising ball-catchers should help Murray get to 20 TDs.
B.Mayfield season pass yards over 4260½ -120
B.Mayfield season pass yards under 4260½ -120
Pick and Analysis: Under. The term “sophomore jinx” is a term for a reason. And even if that’s not the case, it doesn’t mean he’s going to add 500 yards to his total from last season. The reasoning is there, namely with an improved receiving crew. They’re still going to run the ball a lot and it might not be the aerial extravaganza some are expecting in Cleveland this season.
N.Foles season pass yards over 3500½ -120
N.Foles season pass yards under 3500½ -120
Pick and Analysis: Under. I think Foles is a guy who needs a certain set of conditions in which to thrive. Not that he won’t have success in this role, but with a fragile and dicey receiving crew consisting of Dede Westbrook, Keelan Cole, and Chris Conley, a 3500-yard passing season seems like a high-ball number.
L.Murray season rushing yards over 720½ +115
L.Murray season rushing yards under 720½ -155
Pick and Analysis: Under. Now with the Saints, many are thinking he will just inherit Mark Ingram’s touches and pick right up where he left off. A fine back who is a durable and consistent sort, he has barely averaged 4 yards a run in the last four seasons and I don’t see him getting 180 carries in this offense.
A.Humphries season rec yards over 750½ +115
A.Humphries season rec yards under 750½ -155
Pick and Analysis: Over. At 26, he should be coming into his prime. After four productive seasons with Tampa, he moves to a team starved for reliable aerial threats in the Titans. He eclipsed this number last season with a lot more traffic in the Tampa aerial corps. A durable receiver, he should get enough touches to pass this number, maybe even with a few games to go.
D.Jackson season receiving yds ov 835½ +115
D.Jackson season receiving yds un 835½ -155
Pick and Analysis: Under. He hasn’t been near this number in two seasons and is now 32—coming to the end of a good career. He returns home and should be productive, but is entering a situation not dissimilar to what he had in Tampa. And even with the Bucs taking to the air like nobody’s business, he still didn’t put up numbers. With Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Nelson Agholor, and some up-and-comers on the team, it’s hard to see him getting enough targets to eclipse this number.
D.Funchess season receiving yds ov 650½ -120
D.Funchess season receiving yds un 650½ -120
Pick and Analysis: Under. He had one really good season with the Panthers, averaging less than 500 yards the other three seasons. Luck certainly has the arm and this offense isn’t a bad fit for putting up numbers. But with TY Hilton, Eric Ebron, Chester Rogers, and some aerially-inclined backs, getting the right number of touches could be a challenge for Funchess.
J.Crowder season receiving yds ov 700½ +100
J.Crowder season receiving yds un 700½ -140
Pick and Analysis: Under. I don’t question whether Crowder will be a valuable weapon with the Jets. But after a promising start to his career, his results have been dipping. The Jets only have so many touches to go around with Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Le’Veon Bell getting a lot of looks. Darnold only threw for 2865 yards last season and while that number should improve, I find it a bit difficult to imagine a set of conditions where Crowder squeezes out over 700 yards through the air.
J.Brown season receiving yds ov 625½ -120
J.Brown season receiving yds un 625½ -120
Pick and Analysis: Over. After putting up 715 yards on a run-heavy Baltimore offense last season, he would figure to play a prominent role on a Buffalo offense without a lot of aerial options. I picture a slight uptick from QB Josh Allen, with Brown playing a fairly large role. A total of 626 yards seems wholly doable. Brown has done better than that with more-challenging conditions before.
N.Bosa season sacks made over 8½ -135
N.Bosa season sacks made under 8½ -105
Pick and Analysis: Under. First of all, how many sacks a defensive end has is a fairly-rudimentary way to evaluate those who play that position. He never eclipsed this total at the collegiate level and there are others, like DeForest Buckner and Dee Ford, who will also rack up numbers in this category. While certainly a mega-talent for a young player, I say his sack-total fails to tell the whole story, as he goes under 8.5.
Dwayne Haskins starts in over 7½ games -120
Dwayne Haskins starts in under 7½ games -120
Pick and Analysis: Over. Certain conditions would seem to be present for this to go over. Sure, head coaches like Jay Gruden who are on the hot seat don’t give long leashes to rookie quarterbacks. And Case Keenum is a serviceable option and someone who could play capably while Haskins comes around to speed. But let’s assume Alex Smith is out of the picture for 2019. It’s going to be difficult for Keenum to make a compelling-enough case to be kept in there, considering that he doesn’t have the weapons to make it work. The receiver-crew looks pretty bare. I say Haskins starts at least eight games this season.